Submitted by Saltedline t3_yi7inh in technology
punxcs t1_iuhmo31 wrote
Reply to comment by 685327593 in TSMC reportedly building 1nm chip fab in northern Taiwan by Saltedline
Moores law being dead is equally marketing BS from people who want you to pay more.
Gordon Moore himself predicted the law to no longer be applicable beyond 2025, the law itself cannot be dead because it’s a fundamental observation of technological progress, not a pet hamster.
Who knows what technological breakthroughs will occur in the next two years.
cpt_melon t1_iuhr6fv wrote
Moore's law is not about technological progress generally. It's a specific observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit double every two years. Since we are reaching the physical limit of increasing transistor density, Moore's law is dead.
​
>Who knows what technological breakthroughs will occur in the next two years.
That is literally not the point.
685327593 t1_iuhsyaz wrote
The original law also said costs would halve every 2 years and that's been dead for a while now.
685327593 t1_iuhn5zg wrote
You're just arguing semantics. The point is density is scaling much slower than it used to. Call it what you will, but what matters is we aren't going to see the big leaps in performance and cuts in cost anymore.
punxcs t1_iuhvmpf wrote
True I am i guess, it’s just it’s very tiring having people arguing over what tech companies say, nvidia wants the idea of cheaper components to make items gone because they can charge more at every level and people will pay it.
The cost cutting it seems like has never been passed onto consumers.
Much as how RNA vaccine research had its Breakthrough out of necessity, I am sure that issues like quantum tunnelling, or computing, and whatever the future of computing is, will be worked out by people who have been working on it for decades.
685327593 t1_iui2pdb wrote
There's a lot to unpack in that comment, but for the sake of brevity I'll simply say there is no logical reason to expect a new technology to come around and bail us out right as the old technology is reaching its limits.
PS: The COVID vaccines we are using now were developed before a single American had even died of COVID. The technology was already there, the issue was simply all the regulations in the way. Operation Warp Speed didn't develop a new technology, it just cut all the red tape to cut the licensing time down from 10 years to 1 and obviously funded the construction of new production facilities to allow the process to be scaled up rapidly.
babwawawa t1_iuhp8cw wrote
Compute density measured at a global level continues to increase at an exponential rate, and is a much more relevant predictor of technological progress than individual chip density.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments