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Zukiff t1_ixh3k2s wrote

Reply to comment by [deleted] in TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report by brohymn80

Those numbers from the US are totally out of context. Yes the Chinese have far fewer missiles compared to the US overall but they have far more in Asia. If the US can summon the full might of their entire forces to fight China in Asia, yes they will probably win. In reality they can't, in the real world the US have global obligations and can only send a portion to a single theatre at any one time and that's not accounting for ships that are under maintenence which at any one time almost half their carriers are under servicing. That's why the US war games keep coming up with a result of US losing

Finally on the defence Treaty its no longer in effect because the Americans no longer recognize Taiwan as a country and the most ironic part, its a Treaty with China not Taiwan, might want to remember that, the country of Taiwan doesn't exist. The Republic of China does and its constitution states that mainland China is part of its territory

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Sip_py t1_ixh7p3w wrote

It's funny you pose this as purely US v China when all of our allies would likely take up the fight seeing the strategic technological importance of Taiwan to the entire world.

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Zukiff t1_ixh9st3 wrote

Which ally? I'm from Singapore, my govt already told you to go F off we're not taking sides. As far as we're concern this is a civil war and you clowns should stop causing trouble in the region. And we are one of you biggest "ally" in the region. All of Southeast Asia is pretty much doing the same. Most of them are actually more pro China than American.

That leaves Korea and Japan. Korea isn't going to fight its biggest trading partner especially when North Korea is waiting. The Japanese aren't keen on helping either. 74% of Japanese are against their govt taking actions over Taiwan and Japanese constitution does not allow them to do so. So they would actually need to literally change their constitution first.

Who else Mongolia? They are not American ally and they don't even have a navy. Australia? They are too far away and have no means to project power all the way to Taiwan. There's no one else in the region that will help you fight China.

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dudeedud4 t1_ixhp725 wrote

Not Asian countries, we're talking western allies like Europe...

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Zukiff t1_ixjey3r wrote

So you mean to tell me that NATO which is right next to Ukraine and has refused to help them fight Russia which is by all measure a weaker nation than China will somehow sail halfway around the world to defend Taiwan? I want to know what you're smoking right now

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dudeedud4 t1_ixjgpi7 wrote

At no point did I say NATO...

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Zukiff t1_ixjrcz7 wrote

Which one of their Western Allies in Europe isn't part of NATO? LOL. I really want to know that because NATO has more members than EU

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dudeedud4 t1_ixjrmk8 wrote

You do realize that being in NATO doesn't mean they'll automatically attack if one NATO country attacks, right? Only if someone attacks a NATO country specifically.

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Zukiff t1_ixk2452 wrote

Yes I know but you're the one telling me western Allies will come halfway around the world to fight China. I'm asking which one? Like I said, NATO don't even dare fight Russia which by all measure is a weaker nation than China, in Ukraine, which is literally right next to NATO nations. What makes you think members from that same group will sail halfway around the world to confront an even more powerful nation? I really want to understand the logic behind that

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dudeedud4 t1_ixk2cd4 wrote

???? NATO is literally just making this a proxy war right now, and it's working. Why do YOU think this wouldn't happen?

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Sip_py t1_ixl3fjl wrote

I guess Australia doesn't exist at all. And yeah not all NATO countries will participate but do you really believe all European countries wouldn't side with the US and defend Taiwan? You think Germany or the UK is going to be okay with China invading Taiwan?

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Zukiff t1_ixl68sw wrote

Do you even know how far Australia is from Taiwan? Australia also doesn't have power projection last I check they don't have any aircraft carrier and their ships will need to be resupplied somewhere. Southeast Asia have been pretty clear about not taking sides, they won't be able to resupply from there. And finally the current australian govt is trying to mend ties with China. Give it 2-3 months and you will see them making very different stance on the issue

China is Germany's biggest trading partner, their chancellor is the first European leader to visit China to improve ties immediately after Xi confirm his 3rd term. Even if they disagree, they aren't going to disagree hard. Besides, Germany has no power projection. To take part in a recent military exercise in Australia their fighters needed to refuel 5 times just to fly here. You really think they will fight China?

As for the UK, since they are nothing but US lackey I expect them to follow whatever US is doing. Which is nothing. The US dare not fight Russia what makes you think they will fight China which by their own assessment, they will lose. Furthermore to reinforce this point, the US have already moved most of their more advanced hardware like F35 out of the 1st island chain to the 2nd island chain defence to avoid Chinese missile system. They have no capacity to defend Taiwan in asia.

While I'm sure they will try to do something. Like I stated in my last post what are they able to do? Economic sanctions doesn't work and no one even their European Allies are going to support this, direct military means likelihood of losing and providing military support is next to impossible because of Chinese missile system and Taiwan being an island.

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this_barb t1_ixhbqax wrote

It would be China vs the eastern world. Nearly every country wants to see the status quo maintained and they will assist in the effort to keep it that way.

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arkwald t1_ixibwpn wrote

You seem to forget that belligerent pompous assholes who can lie to themselves without consequence have extremely poor track records. CCP are just humans, same as you and I. They are not supermen or superior to anyone else when it comes down to it. Sure they may have lots and lots of manpower, but as we have seen in Ukraine manpower means very little when arrogance and pride overshadow basic reason.

China may indeed try to cross the Taiwan strait. They may attempt to seize the island of Taiwan. They may even succeed. However, the very fact they do so almost guarantees the arrogant pride that will break the people of China. It will expensive and bloody and will be for very little in the end. Expect millions of Chinese mothers to weep as their family lines end because of the feebleminded greed of a man resembling a character in a child's book.

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