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VisualMod t1_ja1gwpk wrote

User Report
Total Submissions 1 First Seen In WSB 10 months ago
Total Comments 16 Previous Best DD
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>TL;DR: There are a lot of things to like about SoFi, and it's very possible that the market is completely irrational when it comes to valuing them.
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VisualMod t1_ja1gx9w wrote

># SoFi Technologies

SoFi is a financial technology company that offers a range of products and services, including student loan refinancing, mortgages, personal loans, credit cards, investing and banking. The company was founded in 2011 and has since then grown rapidly, with over 7 million members as of Q4 2020. SoFi has been profitable for the last three years and its revenue grew by 46% in 2020 to $1.5 billion.

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Rhino4788 t1_ja1h1iy wrote

What’s your cost average lmfao loser

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JohnnyFnCliche t1_ja1i8v6 wrote

I just sold my stake in SoFi, which clearly means they're going to 500x now...I gotta learn to baghold better so that these evil corporations only stagnate or lose value... /s

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DYTTIGAF t1_ja1kkl8 wrote

SoFi reminds me of unfocused and disjointed corporations of the 1980's.

Can't do everything (and be good at anything). The market is pricing this stock to reflect its poor management (and vision execution).

Reminds of Coinbase on steroids with its bad cost control which is pushing the company into the cellar.

Short. Puts...or an elevator going down. It's one way express train to hell.

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PossibleBank7152 t1_ja1n6b4 wrote

My price target is 100 in 5 years, will outperform traditional banks

14

DYTTIGAF t1_ja1nrpw wrote

Replying to Dpope32 (#2,014,690)

I hold the stock. The company has to make money. It needs to find leadership that can handle the vision they are pitching.

This isn't an endeavour to product art. It's not a coloring book. Slick ads and impressive graphics belie's the truth that SoFi is sucking up cash. Rising interest rates put this company on the path to bankruptcy...if they do not turn it around.

It's the truth.

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RegulateTheRegulator t1_ja1o94f wrote

I like Silvergate Capital a little more or CuntBase or even buying calls on Boil

1

Dpope32 t1_ja1ocqb wrote

Replying to DYTTIGAF (#2,014,912)

Really need to focus on profit margin going forward, I agree. You’d think being a tech based company they’d find a way to keep costs low. Only time will tell

3

mehmeh42 t1_ja1ox9h wrote

They are trading this cheap because they offer so many shares to staff, the market dilution is killer on this one unfortunately. I own about 1000 shares at 8.5 was trading in it above but have been selling calls on every jump about $1-$2 lower and tracking the return. At this point idc where it goes I’ll keep selling against this bank until they start paying divs like every other bank. Hopefully this student loan disaster turns around for them and they can make all that back will instantly pump.

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DYTTIGAF t1_ja1ph7h wrote

Replying to Dpope32 (#2,015,055)

I have "been their and done that"...with one of the largest mortgage companies in the country 2 decades ago.

Technology can only go so far in shaving costs and delivering a "financial product line" to scale. If your models are bad the more you scale...the more money you lose. Ironically.

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dudenice420 t1_ja1qpyy wrote

You conveniently forget to mention them earning a delicious -0.58 EPS, -124M EBITDA, -28% profit margin and -9% ROE …. Where do I sign up?!

62

lfaexs t1_ja1reud wrote

I got 1,092 shares 😎🍻

2

kmpoaquests t1_ja1t97n wrote

Never touching a scamath involved stock ever again. Fuck him hard. I hope his plane goes down.

6

nateccs t1_ja1tnkz wrote

my wife just got an account there really good apr if you do direct deposit! calls it is.

4

sorryimhammered t1_ja1uc4o wrote

Lets keep sofi a secret until i can buy more shares please. However, not a good sign when the first crayola picture you share is a guesstimate of the future graph. To top it off u trust chatpgt’s stock price when it assumes the most regarded market cap and outstanding shares (off by more than 900,000,000) amounts. Covered calls it is.

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Bryguy3k t1_ja1vkh6 wrote

Use their app for few hours and you’ll understand why.

2

RationalOpinions t1_ja1xkc5 wrote

You want my opinion? Fuck that meme stock. You don’t want it? Buy that stupid stock

3

Humble_Increase7503 t1_ja1xyjn wrote

Replying to DYTTIGAF (#2,014,912)

They’re growing at an obscene rate. You can’t just disregard that and then talk about how they’re wasting money on ads and not making money.

I mean, you can, but it begs the question of why you’re in a non profitable growth stock in a high rate environment

And rising rates put them into bankruptcy!?

They have a banking charter, they take advantage of that rising rate environment as well.

And they’re not that far away from being profitable. -40m net income q4 2022, ~-.05 eps. I mean, given their growth, that seems a bit extreme.

Particularly with the CEO buying $7m worth of shares in 1 week in December. Shit he’s been buying a fuck ton of shares tbh. Like tens of millions of dollars worth for months now. Seems strange behavior for a company in the fast lane for bankruptcy.

while stock based comp is to be expected, it remains an irritation. ~$70m in SBC last quarter alone is crazy. That being said, it’s been trending down the past 2 quarters, hopefully that continues.

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ZasdfUnreal t1_ja1xyyu wrote

That blue up arrow on the first image is all I needed to see. Will drop 20k on SOFI on Monday.

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DYTTIGAF t1_ja2139i wrote

Replying to Humble_Increase7503 (#2,016,755)

SoFi debt models (include FICO scores from customers) which will not allow most of their debt to be securitized. That is, sold off (meaning that they will have to warehouse alot of their products themselves). This is not what they want to do. It's not their business models.

It's the same problem Carvana has had over the last year. Resulting in a 90% drop in their stock price and taking them to the brink of bankruptcy.

You cannot run a "financial production" company with the cost of capital increasing by a factor of 5X in under 18 months.

The 30% decline in market value since the beginning of the year reflects this accurate price discovery by investors.

2

wampapoga t1_ja219xf wrote

Replying to dudenice420 (#2,015,506)

literal carvana of fintech loan servicers. Worst part is OP has some good points but bad direction in terms of macro analysis. Google college & personal loan enrollment over the pandemic. Just because they are buying the name rights of stadiums doesn't make them a potential four bagger. Look at FTX and Florida. Best of luck op.

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StygaiAsshai t1_ja21o0f wrote

It's not ready yet.

Their customer service has been great for me. They just have a few things to iron out. They are adding things for invest too. I like the social aspect of it.

I'll buy back in under 6. If the next earnings is still going in the right direction then yes it's a good buy.

I use them to bank with and my main trading account is with them right now bc I can't affords commissions. I use TradingView for charts.

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tlthang t1_ja230en wrote

He wrote than much and then only own 500 shares

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Precious_Nike t1_ja26o8r wrote

Number of subscribers does not equal number of outstanding shares. Wrong cal.

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Humble_Increase7503 t1_ja2fjx7 wrote

Replying to DYTTIGAF (#2,017,327)

It’s up 15%+ since the beginning of the year, unless you meant since the beginning of 2022, to which I say, find me a non profitable growth stock that isn’t down, a lot, since then

Carvana is not a reasonable comparable at all

2

SnipahShot t1_ja2ipzl wrote

Replying to DYTTIGAF (#2,014,339)

>Can't do everything (and be good at anything). The market is pricing this stock to reflect its poor management (and vision execution).

Lol, what? They are literally beating estimates and guidance in every report. gif They grew 52% in 2022. They are literally guiding for GAAP profitability in Q4, moved from Q1 2024.

2

smokinjoe569 t1_ja2javl wrote

Replying to Dpope32 (#2,015,055)

They are tech based on that they don't have branches but they're still a financial institution. Getting deposits has a cost with it and their loan portfolio isn't really geared towards a higher rate environment.

3

mehmeh42 t1_ja2jvox wrote

Replying to Dpope32 (#2,015,211)

Either it is forgiven to not destroy the banking system as a whole from losses on A/R reductions on the BS and the gov pays, driving inflation higher. Or the gov forces people to start paying their loans back and A/R turns into Rev which wii be returnable earning rises …

2

SnipahShot t1_ja2li5q wrote

Replying to DYTTIGAF (#2,014,912)

Have you even looked at their fundamentals? Bankruptcy? How do you invest in a company that you don't understand their fundamentals or financial status.

Let's look at how much money SoFi has, shall we?

As of Q3 2022 (10K is not out yet) SoFi had 10,662,995K unpaid principal on their loans. (page 27 of the 10Q)

Out of all of that, 2,314,950K are from warehouse facilities (page 51 of the 10Q).

Out of the remaining, SoFi also had 5,031,630K deposits (page 4 of the 10Q).

After accounting for both, SoFi had $3.3B of their own money in loans (seeing as there are only 3 sources of money to fund loans).

Now, this is just their own money that is in loans.

This is assuming all deposits are used for loans (which they quite possibly are not), this is also ignoring their cash and cash equivalents of $935mil in Q3 which would include their revolving facility money of $486mil.

​

Now, for them to actually actually head to bankruptcy they have to spend more than they make. But it doesn't really work that way with GAAP accounting because GAAP accounting counts non cash expenses as well, for example SBC expenses.

From their cash flows and my own spreadsheets, Q3 marked SoFi's first quarter where SBC expense is higher than their actual net loss, meaning they are actually increasing their own cash situation. In Q3 the difference between SBC expense and the net loss was about $3mil, in Q4 that difference increased to $30.9mil (while SBC expense was decreasing from Q2 to Q3 and then to Q4).

​

In a later reply I saw you said SoFi has issues selling securitizations, that is plainly wrong.

SoFi literally sold 2 securitizations in the last 4 months (440mil and 340mil) within a day, both receiving AAA ratings from 3 different rating companies. Finsight

The buyers of these securitizations? Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, Goldman Sachs, JPM, US Bancorp, Mizuho, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank. This is on top of them doing whole loan sales because securitizations are less profitable to do. In Q3 they sold $1.08B of loans (value of unpaid principal on them) for which they received $1.1B for (page 35 of the 10Q).

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SnipahShot t1_ja2m1jw wrote

Replying to Humble_Increase7503 (#2,016,755)

>while stock based comp is to be expected, it remains an irritation. ~$70m in SBC last quarter alone is crazy.

Not really an irritation, it is insignificant. For one, it is a non cash expense.

And for two, a large portion of that expense is related to PSUs that were awarded after the IPOE process, PSUs with price targets of 25, 35 and 45 (volume weighted average for over 90 days) within 5 years of IPOE. Whether these vest eventually (one or all) doesn't matter one bit, will anyone complain if the stock price is at $45 within the next 2-3 years? Or at $25? If they don't vest then no dilution happens making it pointless.

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secrtive13 t1_ja2min6 wrote

I'm bagholding 500 shares at like 5.50ish. It hasn't even attempted to retest $10 (with any real strength) let alone teach those lofty analyst price targets of 15-25+. Guess football stadiums aren't the business...until they are. I'll be holding until at least $11, so I'm stuck long term.

SoFi...needs to fly.

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SnipahShot t1_ja2mphb wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,014,262)

Okay, and your point is what?

Their deposits grew from $1B in Q1 to $7.34B in Q4 with 80% being from members with direct deposit . Oh, I am sure they cry every day for your $25 while they make 1.9% more money from interest on their loans compared to their warehouse facility loans.

1

MathieuofIce t1_ja2r5u8 wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,018,105)

I refinanced my student loans with them years ago (about 70k of them at least). Back then SOFI was cool. They were throwing parties for borrowers and giving away swag. Spoiler: the service was so shitty and easily beat that I refinanced again with another loan servicer that I am much happier with. They took my 8-9% 25 year loans for about 70k and I went with a 6.25% variable for 15 year package. My interest rate was raised every month until about 10 months in, I was over 7.5% again. At that point I refinanced again. IMO SOFI peaked in 2017 and got lucky during the pandemic.

Edit: sell your calls homie. Any student loan borrower who actually got an education will be able to find better fintech.

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SnipahShot t1_ja2uifu wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,021,725)

Heavy bags lol.

I was in 10% profit 2 weeks ago and I hope the stock goes back down because I didn't finish "loading the bags". There are people with heavier bags in VOO and QQQ than mine in SoFi. gif

1

SnipahShot t1_ja2vmvq wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,021,940)

Your retorts are so idiotic.

Cope harder gif

VOO is down 18% from ATH.

VOO will go up but a company with improving fundamentals, $4B of money and a decreasing GAAP net loss of $40mil in the last quarter will never recover (net loss that is based on non cash expenses).

That is a thing, when you actually look at fundamentals and at the actual report you don't make a clown of yourself on Reddit or anywhere else talking out of your ass.

Also -

>If you bought in 2 weeks ago you are currently down.

Literally almost every single company in the stock market. And yes, AMEN that they go down lower.

1

SnipahShot t1_ja2y1mb wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,022,215)

> SOFI is down over 72% from ATH

And...? I said there are people with heavier bags in VOO and QQQ than what I am down on SoFi since you were talking about me and not someone else.

>None of this is relevant. I took can make up fake scenarios that mean nothing.

Hmm? What? I literally gave you numbers from the earnings report. Didn't add a single "scenario".

>SOFI is down. Hard.

They moved up over 90% within 35 trading days.

​

> You are the one who looks like an ass because they lack reading comprehension skills and critical thought.

The reason I am invested in SoFi is because I couldn't care less what people say and look at earnings reports myself.

​

>Yes, but you avoided typing your cost basis so I went with your comment about 2 weeks ago. All you said was you were up 10% 2 weeks ago. That means nothing to anyone.

I know math is hard for people on this sub but considering SoFi topped out at 8.24 and I was up 10% at around there, fairly easy to estimate my cost basis. It wouldn't be accurate but it would be few cents off. Just for the sake of amusement, my cost basis is 7.42.

​

And nothing amuses me more than people talking about bags. I replied to someone about META a while back and they talked about my bags, not even knowing I bought into META a day before and was up (sold for profit already). This retort never ceases to amaze me from people who can't accept a different opinion by someone who perhaps looked into a company more than they did.

1

longunmin t1_ja32arw wrote

"Generous Savings Rate" of 3.75%. Current 1yr Tsy is 5.10%. Loss of 135bps? Sign me up.

Your post is bad, and you should feel bad

1

_ass_burgers_ t1_ja35yko wrote

This might be the shittiest DD I’ve ever seen. GFY

1

p4rty_sl0th t1_ja3762m wrote

"Fin Tech company with over $1.5 billion in revenue (and growing by the day) trade this cheaply?"

Easy they lost 75 million last quarter

1

SnipahShot t1_ja3bkz9 wrote

Replying to CBruceNL (#2,023,224)

I don't know where or how the stock will move, I only correct people's wrong fundamental understanding of SoFi.

Hopefully it still goes down because I'd love to buy more and I am bearish on the market and assume it would pull SoFi down.

2

SnipahShot t1_ja3d6b5 wrote

Replying to mehmeh42 (#2,015,176)

>They are trading this cheap because they offer so many shares to staff, the market dilution is killer on this one unfortunately.

That is actually wrong.

A big portion of their SBC expense has nothing to do with dilution. A big portion of their SBC expense is related to PSUs they awarded during the IPOE process, PSUs that are related to the stock price.

A dilution will happen if the stock price hits $25 on a volume weighted average over 90 days within 5 years of IPOE. Same for $35 and $45. All 3 of which seem unlikely right now, and if they do happen will someone complain about dilution when they x4 their investment from now to the lowest price target within like 3 years from now?

Their dilution is about 5-6mil shares per quarter, on 930mil shares outstanding (less than 1% per quarter).

1

SnipahShot t1_ja3qeya wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#2,026,137)

>You said VOO was down 18% from ATH. I stated how far SOFI was down from ATH.

You are trying to cherry pick start and end dates to suit your argument. I'm picking consistent time frames and metrics. You are mental gymnastics to make your shit argument work in your tiny pea sized brain, but everyone sees through your dumbassery.

I said there are people "holding bags" on VOO and QQQ more than what I am down gif Why do you insist on trying to twist out of this moronic "bag hold" bs?

So much stupidity in your inability to comprehend and trying to twist things to fit your lame attempt at what ever insult you were trying to make.

Are there

Or are there not

People holding VOO

At above my cost basis?

​

It is a simple yes or no question and I am sure even your slow brain can work out an 1 word answer.

​

>It's irrelevant because it's meaningless.

Company financial data is meaningless? Go eat crayons. gif

I won't even continue reading your pointlessly idiotic replies anymore and won't continue reading the rest of that comment either.

1