S&P 500 analysis.

Submitted by hummmduno t3_11ek6i5 in wallstreetbets

BEFORE YOU READ

Now i know what your going to say “this regard is using crayons to predict the market!” However, I want to clarify that the patterns I will be comparing with the S&P 500 are not drawn but rather based on past price action. While some may argue that the past cannot be compared to the present , these four patterns have consistently demonstrated similar behaviors. I have yet to find any patterns that contradict them, although there may be additional patterns that I have not yet discovered. This analysis is based on data from the year 2000 to present, and these examples serve to illustrate my point.

The chart is in the weekly candles and all of the patterns are from the S&P 500.

First off, we have a cyan pattern that occurred between February 2010 and September 2010. It suggests a potential 5% downturn from the current price, which is expected to occur in mid-May.

This pattern is perhaps the most accurate, since the pattern closely mirrors the actual price action

https://preview.redd.it/uh7vweuowzka1.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=c85a891542775caf017cc2d5e77d994587c97f2a

The second pattern in purple is from March 2002 to March 2003, and it suggests a potential 6% downturn from the current price, which is also expected to occur in mid-May.

https://preview.redd.it/qgrkpspqwzka1.png?width=1628&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=33d5507ec74bf7233e38d6c011cde2fbb3292917

The third pattern in red is from October 2007 to September 2008, and it suggests a potential 14% downturn from the current price, which is also expected to occur in mid-May.

I am aware that this pattern is during the housing market crash, but the current price behavior indicates parallels with the crash of 2008.

https://preview.redd.it/w15qe95swzka1.png?width=1645&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=948397c5e60e5bf786b96f1f826d23518c1ed1c1

The fourth pattern in yellow is from August 2000 to December 2002, and it suggests a potential 16% downturn from the current price, which is also expected to occur in mid-May.

Again I don't believe it will experience such a significant drop, but it does exhibit similar patterns to the crash of 2002.

https://preview.redd.it/umetnokuwzka1.png?width=1638&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=033d180934dfa5d623b0a6fbfd632570606635fc

I have discovered that there are several patterns similar to this in the S&P 500, but I am unsure if there is any pattern that does not suggest a decline in mid-May. Despite my search, I have not been able to find any such pattern, and every potential pattern I came across indicated a decline until mid-May. Therefore, I am uncertain of the extent of the potential decline, but if my analysis is correct, it seems likely that the decline will halt in mid-May. But if I had to say I think that the cyan pattern is very likely to happen.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research before investing.

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LeMondain t1_jaeq0k6 wrote

This is crap in its purest form

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Matthew-Hodge t1_jaehzt5 wrote

I agree with cyan. But a severe correction may spur additional selling and panic.

3750 mid March-3600 may.

It matches my puts as well. Well done. Let's watch this play out.

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2

VisualMod t1_jaeh7v5 wrote

>It is important to note that I am not a financial advisor, and my analysis should not be taken as investment advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Fibocrypto t1_jaejeuo wrote

OP, For what it's worth I have one overlay for you to consider followed by 2 key dates that I think are important this year .

https://preview.redd.it/sfuv2mm7h1la1.jpeg?width=1119&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=864d3d569a379d9079dbdce68ebd3c1f040c0f7a

This pattern if you wish to call it that is the Dow Jones industrial average from the year 2022 to date and in the background is the years 1962-1963 . Both being weekly bars Additionally I'm focused on march 20-21 and June 10 as my 2 most important key dates this year . This chart was updated as of Fridays close . Call us both regards . Looking at the Dow daily chart and using the 14 day RSI The Dow tends to have strong bounces following a poke below 30 and while rare a poke below 27 is not an impossible possibility.

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hummmduno OP t1_jaek1je wrote

Your pattern analysis may be flawed if you are relying on a short and inconclusive pattern. The pattern could be a mere coincidence, so you should ask yourself whether you are following the pattern out of a personal bias or a legitimate reason. It's important to consider whether you can find other patterns that confirm yours. If you can't, your analysis may not be reliable.

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grimkhor t1_jaen5pl wrote

>The pattern could be a mere coincidence

How high up ur but is that stick that so say another mans crayons are a coincidence but ur random patterns are a fact. How about all of that is a coincidence.

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Fibocrypto t1_jaelzxa wrote

Then again I am looking out further than you are and I'm using a longer pattern and I'm showing a longer historical correlation than you are. I have backed up my pattern by including a simple indicator and I have included a timing component which will help to prove myself correct or wrong . Right or wrong the market is going to decide . I was just trying to add content to your content . I've still got 2 to 3 weeks before I take on any leveraged positions . We will know soon enough . I'm going to correct the above . We both are looking at similar durations so I take that back . Good luck and I hope we both come out ahead over the rest of the year.

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hummmduno OP t1_jaen2nc wrote

I just think that your pattern might be correlation without causation. Just look at my cyan pattern and check just how much its correlated. But we will see eventually.

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Fibocrypto t1_jaewyek wrote

My pattern is based upon the 60 year cycle. If this correlation is to continue then the Dow will basically double between now and the year 2026 and then a long term bear market would be expected. We will find out soon enough . For me and for other reasons March 20-21 and June 10 will be important to me this year and both should be some sort of a low . Your work from the little I can see kind of fit with that June period .

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SilentPhanto t1_jaenar1 wrote

Hmmm.... I don't see it. I expect for a bullish march. Although I only trade 0 dte $SPY so your input really doesn't do much for me as I'm in and out within 2-3 hrs of markets opening.

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Hey /u/hummmduno, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: The S&P 500 is likely to experience a 5-16% decline in mid-May, with the most likely scenario being a 5% decline.

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baconography t1_jaeqrfb wrote

I'm holding on to my $13k of 5/19 SPX 3930p until the bitter end, so I guarantee you that we're going up or sideways until then.

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