Submitted by rocket_man19 t3_117eici in wallstreetbets
Comments
token-eater t1_j9b7oko wrote
Puts on Carvana?
rocket_man19 OP t1_j9b95a5 wrote
That’s my play
short-ldt t1_j9b9nv4 wrote
Mannheim Index increasing recently After Long period of decrease—>carvana will boost to Moon 🚀
Fluid-Poet8474 t1_j9b9rjb wrote
And just $500 invested 😂
[deleted] t1_j9bbq49 wrote
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iWriteYourMusic t1_j9bbsjy wrote
28.2% options implied move lol good luck with that
GiantEarnings t1_j9bcacx wrote
I am really enjoying this 3 days weekend and also this weekend is suffocating me for waiting the market open.
Particular_Arm_8309 t1_j9bd6ox wrote
If Carvana doesnt file for bankrupty in 3 Days, i would think that the price would rise. The business model is well thought out and considering where the course comes from i am very confident 😁
BreakfastOnTheRiver t1_j9bhl8i wrote
It will probably do what upstart did on earnings
BedContent9320 t1_j9bi0wg wrote
Too many regards on options, shit is wild
Data_Dealer t1_j9birbu wrote
Yes the business model of never making money, even when the used car market is at an all time high is well thought out...
Mrtooth12 t1_j9birw4 wrote
I have a feeling that regardless of the outcome of earnings somehow the price will rise, the reason being that there is a lot of hype over carvana
Dmartinez8491 t1_j9bj9jz wrote
I'm buying calls so it'll probably crater to $1
DYTTIGAF t1_j9bjlk5 wrote
Carvana isn't in the used car business. They are in the note securitization business (which means they lend money on used cars to consumers who can qualify and bundle those thousands of notes and sell the bundled pile as a financial product).
Carvana needs volume. They need a pipeline of notes and that requires a pipeline of sales. This requires a pipeline of people who can qualify on a 11% car loan that is almost $40,000. This is now a very small percentage of consumers. Most are carrying credit card, mortgage, student loan, and miscellaneous personal debt that could choke a pig.
The Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise rates again in June. Carvana's models worked at 2% interest rates. They don't work at 11%.
Carvana is dead.
Old-Illustrator-5675 t1_j9blanp wrote
Don't worry bro. I'll buy some calls and it'll tank.
[deleted] t1_j9bluit wrote
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[deleted] t1_j9bolpi wrote
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The_CrystalSoul t1_j9bouo4 wrote
Like others here, the suffocation is part of the enjoyment.
Particular_Arm_8309 t1_j9bp0z9 wrote
We will see in 3 Days 🙃
flaming_pope t1_j9bpar1 wrote
!remindme 3 days,
IV gonna crush, good entry after drop.
SigmaRemoteWorker t1_j9bpc97 wrote
Cant wait to lose money
SigmaRemoteWorker t1_j9bpe4c wrote
Everytime market is closed escobar meme comes to rescue
RemindMeBot t1_j9bpfhf wrote
I will be messaging you in 3 days on 2023-02-23 19:23:45 UTC to remind you of this link
2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
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Data_Dealer t1_j9bqbn4 wrote
When they announce more losses?
ScipioAtTheGate t1_j9brbo0 wrote
Imagine if they got rid of the Car part of their name and just switched to being "Vana" the van selling company
DontTaxMeJoe t1_j9bsten wrote
Used car prices up and you’re taking puts on Carvana
bigchikka1978 t1_j9btb1z wrote
So calls it is
DeftShark t1_j9bud8m wrote
Tbh, it’ll probably shoot to around $23/$24.
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9bvgic wrote
What time is the call?
pharmboy008 t1_j9bvkom wrote
Sounds like insider info here
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9bvmhz wrote
Just curious, how would you profit off it NOT moving as much as that? since they seem to really be pricing in a big move. Even if it's shit, I doubt it'll move THAT much. Hell, it went up 4% today, so that is an extra 4% it has to un do as well lol.
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9bvqhe wrote
Try 22% they go high too. I bet you earnings will be better than expected
iWriteYourMusic t1_j9bvvy3 wrote
You wouldn’t. I think there are some good options calculators out there that can help you simulate IV crush. I don’t remember what the are. Personally if I feel like gambling earnings I do shares so I can get out during the big AH move. I want to go short CVNA and a BYND eod on Wednesday but I’m not sure I have the stones.
DYTTIGAF t1_j9bwq1l wrote
Consumers need to qualify for these cars. Carvana does not hold the notes. The notes are repackaged an sold to investors.
Institutional investors will not buy securities from Carvana with car loans from people who live paycheck to paycheck (paying 21% ).
They did this with subprime mortgages back in 2007. They won't do it again.
Carvana is finished.
Particular_Arm_8309 t1_j9bxjh0 wrote
It is not important how big the losses are, but how the market reacts to them. And there is the scope. Idont have any Options but the return will be juicy 😁
ekgpmd t1_j9bxtbo wrote
Same dude. It’s funny, I made a post about caravana and got downvoted and ignored by everyone on here. Funny.
PinThatInTeParkinLot t1_j9byx60 wrote
Backup plan? Selling or buying?
PinThatInTeParkinLot t1_j9byyr8 wrote
Too much IV
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9bzfyd wrote
What I mean is they'll give anyone a car loan lmao.
jawn_blaze t1_j9bzg3y wrote
You have a lot of confidence but don’t really know what you’re talking about.
21% auto notes can absolutely be a good investment. Where in the capital structure? How much excess spread? What triggers?
All that said, Carvanas is a shady company and their losses will be worse than peers as most people who purchased from them way overpaid and the stated collateral value is too high. (So their stated LTV’s are artificially depressed)
Be careful dude, blind confidence can blow yourself up.
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9bzilo wrote
Just wondering.if you can take advantage of a crush. (guessing only writing them then)
Igotabwc7 t1_j9c10pm wrote
Calls on CVNA
Igotabwc7 t1_j9c12ta wrote
Let it squeeze
DYTTIGAF t1_j9c1mqb wrote
That's why Carvana is done 90%. That's why billions in market capitalization has been lost. Where did those loses come from? Guys like you.
Carry on....
WuTang360Bees t1_j9c1nvx wrote
IV is 200% for Carvana options. Just leave it alone.
jawn_blaze t1_j9c5ui4 wrote
I offered no one financial advice. You offered up emphatic truths to strangers in a subject you have a cursory knowledge of.
I’ll let others decide what’s better.
DYTTIGAF t1_j9c6ief wrote
The market will decide and test. It will approve. It has already spoken but you will not discern the feedback.
AlbatrossAndy t1_j9c7s4e wrote
Everyone calling puts on WISH so naturally they will pop by 50%. Mark my words.
RobertsonvsPhillips t1_j9ccttt wrote
After the move, after IV crush, opposite direction it'll go.
ATMtoAMC t1_j9ccwph wrote
Sell calls
RobertsonvsPhillips t1_j9cd6j9 wrote
Vanvana lol
RobertsonvsPhillips t1_j9cdamy wrote
Do you wanna Vanvana?
MustWarn0thers t1_j9ce260 wrote
I think taking advantage of crush would be selling the options themselves, whether it be cash secured puts or share secured calls. Increased premiums.
Boccob81 t1_j9ce2vt wrote
Puts maybe lol
Senorsaz t1_j9cenzb wrote
Red o or green o.
fulldouche t1_j9cfbto wrote
You hate on Carvana all you want but I bought my Maserati from them! They delivered that beast to the front door of my cardboard box behind the Target and everything! Calls for life because of that.
bailey25u t1_j9cha18 wrote
I applied there to be an IT manager, and they turned me down. So I agree with your position... Im in
Rballor t1_j9ci6di wrote
It will squeeze! No bankrupt company continues to advertise on tv/social media, and I see these delivery trucks once a month by me
[deleted] t1_j9cn96q wrote
sound-of-impact t1_j9co4jx wrote
>The Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise rates again in June. Carvana's models worked at 2% interest rates. They don't work at 11%. > >Carvana is dead.
Simple. 15+ year auto loans. 🚀
cristofolmc t1_j9cpn1d wrote
I need the casino to reopen!
Nmsokn t1_j9cprd1 wrote
This is me waiting to see if i get my juicy $5 gains this week
gaurav0792 t1_j9cqol1 wrote
Yea, a lot of people are regarded, but not that regarded.
lebronkahn t1_j9cs8nl wrote
If it gets ITM, does IV matter?
iWriteYourMusic t1_j9csv8g wrote
I would say you could buy the puts/calls a couple months before earnings and then sell the day before earnings report.
PinThatInTeParkinLot t1_j9ct9nb wrote
Expecto_nihilus t1_j9cvva7 wrote
Amazon has entered the chat.
jigglywigglybiggly t1_j9cyu6z wrote
Lmao that’s what I’m thinking Upstart went up 28% analysts are estimating a 22% drop on CVNA I reckon it’ll go the opposite direction
And if there is anything I’ve learnt is if majority of this sub is bearish on a certain ticker it rockets
jigglywigglybiggly t1_j9cz0ic wrote
After Close on Thursday
Data_Dealer t1_j9d04kc wrote
Amazon had to get up to scale, they've been very profitable for about 13 years now. Buying cars for more than anyone else and then selling them at a loss and being sued for illegal business practices in just about every state you operate in is not a good business model, and never will be.
Trikki1 t1_j9d0dpv wrote
What about $root? They’ve been trending 2:1 with cvna and are pretty entwined.
mdizzle109 t1_j9d0t6a wrote
PickleMysterious2361 t1_j9d1bfy wrote
I have like a 3 month out $2 put hopefully everyone realizes the stock is ass
cptspinach85 t1_j9d36xl wrote
They missed the #vanlife craze
Thencewasit t1_j9d3r9x wrote
You will be missing the #vanlife craze when you’re living in a van down by the river.
HornyWeeeTurd t1_j9d4yx4 wrote
Mmmmmhmmmmm
Cause mmmmmm puts mmmmmmm
[deleted] t1_j9d7vz2 wrote
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Far_Introduction527 t1_j9d92w5 wrote
One thing I have always wondered is how soon do they price the options for an earnings?
Like how early do you need to do something like that? I love earnings plays, but when I KNOW it's gonna move SOME direction
ekgpmd t1_j9dbrkd wrote
What I’m at right now. Hopin it could move up a little bit before selling.
frsbrzgti t1_j9ddf0h wrote
Just passed by a Carvana building in Maryland and it had no cars in it.
technoexplorer t1_j9dhgur wrote
When is the show scheduled?
technoexplorer t1_j9dhqou wrote
Everytime I go three days without filing bankruptcy I end up richer, too.
AbeWasHereAgain t1_j9do9i2 wrote
I remember when I had my first beer
AnimeCiety t1_j9du28h wrote
Then you’re also dealing with time decay. You may not break even despite higher trending IV if time to expiry offsets.
AideOdd1666 t1_j9dxaxz wrote
Why was it closed so long?
Werdna168 t1_j9dzvdv wrote
Straddle or strangle or the ever more secure iron condor.
darkspd96 t1_j9e4e5x wrote
Weekends must be tough on you not having any friends
beatsbycuit t1_j9e6h9u wrote
$TSLA has entered the chat
MoonJumpMania t1_j9edow6 wrote
Y'all also have family day in the US?
where_is_my_avocado t1_j9exeo7 wrote
Youre absolutely right but with >50% of shares short and even sellside getting bearish, who the fuck knows how bad it has to be to move the stock down
sugarfryz1 t1_j9f1z0w wrote
I’m considering buying puts so it’ll probably go flat.
[deleted] t1_j9f6j24 wrote
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Pepepopowa t1_j9f8dbr wrote
Bro the vocab isn’t impressive and it’s a little pretentious to agree with him but nit-pick his response for not being completely nuanced.
Pepepopowa t1_j9f94by wrote
I’m tempted to break your comment down but I doubt we want to waste more time here.
“Institutional investors will not buy securities from Carvana with car loans from people who live paycheck to paycheck (paying 21% ).”
You reply that 21% car loans CAN be good investments. Really? In what way? For who?
Do you believe saying excess spread and trigger is a winning argument? Is your argument that you know more than him and his attitude upset you?
CREDIT_SUS_INTERN t1_j9favgm wrote
Always inverse wsb, so call it is.
PM_Me_Your_Mustash t1_j9flo97 wrote
Down 7% 💀
areolegrande t1_j9fn56j wrote
$ -3.50
HopeNo7406 t1_j9fojij wrote
We buy before the report, we will help the company. The shortists have become impudent
Obvious_Problem_122 t1_j9fowhu wrote
Bought another 200
Mandiblelorian t1_j9g0onl wrote
You sonofabitch, i'm in! Just got bought 10 CVNA 02/24/2023 12.50 C!
The_Punicorn t1_j9gzvm0 wrote
If your bet is it won't move that much, selling CSPs would let you take advantage of the premium. But your fucked if it does move.
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9h0bz4 wrote
Yeah writing options is like shorting. Limited upside unlimited downside. I don't write em.
The_Punicorn t1_j9h0uh1 wrote
Only selling Naked Calls have unlimited potential loss, and selling those is pure fucking greed. Your losses should be capped on any of the other writes.
Far_Introduction527 t1_j9h1gqx wrote
True. But still limited upside lol.
This is WSB. Not for pussies hahahah. Jk
Puzzleheaded_War6849 t1_j9h87lf wrote
They do a lot less of this now. Bulk of finance receivables are just pushed off onto Ally through forward-flow, not through CVNA sponsored securitizations.
They make a bit on the forward-flows, but it's dwarfed by the rest of the purported business model.
They really are just a (bad) car business. They need an absolutely astronomical amount of sales to support the bloated, debt laden company when they have unimpressive gross margins.
It's probably a $0 by 2025.
Feeling_Inspector890 t1_j9md02s wrote
>lot less of this now. Bulk of finance receivables are just pushed off onto Ally through forward-flow, not thro
And with that foresight, you can't even double your money haha. Seems priced in.
Particular_Arm_8309 t1_j9nd97p wrote
Soros invest in "bankruptcy" Carvana?
cgm808 t1_j9oylsf wrote
Good point. Though, used car volume is significantly down in Q4 2022 and drastically below the SAAR. Meaning, I am regarded and have no idea.
cgm808 t1_j9oys1b wrote
“Took new positions” doesn’t imply they’re “investing” in Carvana though.
ekgpmd t1_j9q14es wrote
I’m back here. Caravana at $9.72 a share
SupportUseful t1_j9yer0t wrote
LOL, Carvana is done .. anyone here gambling on another shortsqueeze? Lol
VisualMod t1_j9b5wiu wrote