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Evn-erl t1_iuemkl9 wrote

I think anyone with any sort of economic training has a tough time seeing prices increasing in perpetuity…that being said we probably won’t see prices actually stabilize until we get into an actual recession where unemployment goes up…and that has not happened yet, might happen next year, who knows?

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Nieshtze t1_iugxfk9 wrote

I am well-regarded in the field of macroeconomics, and i predict that inflation will remain high for the next 4-5 years till the economy reflects the amount of money printed by central banks throughout the world, and then stabilize.

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hjames9 t1_iuh7tv6 wrote

I would agree with this if it wasn't for the fact that we didn't see any inflation until the covid lockdowns and reopening. It does feel like once supply chain issues work itself out, inflation should drop.

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Evn-erl t1_iuhgzj5 wrote

Idk man, we are already starting to see home prices stabilize and drop, along with that lumber and construction supplies…

“Until the economy reflects the amount of money printed by central banks throughout the world”

Yes…large dynamic systems made up of an almost infinite amount of individuals processes, assets, etc are clearly known for the capacity of thoughtful introspection

Edit: sorry I read your comment wrong. I thought you said reflects on, as if the economy was taking a good hard look at itself in the mirror, lol, my bad

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Superb-Ad3945 t1_iufhh9h wrote

I think your correct. But the recession might need to be deep or perhaps double dip to properly kill the inflation. Also I have to actually cause a recession. Something that the media is speculation a early pivot. This will be a game of chicken it seems perhaps it is a impossible game to win without beefing it

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Evn-erl t1_iufhylg wrote

“Double dip” doesn’t make any sense…but yeah no one can see what will cause it rn.

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Superb-Ad3945 t1_iufimwj wrote

Double dip is when the fed pivots too early. They try to anticipate the neutral rate as their tools have long lags. Then they have to pivot back to put the economy in a second more powerful recession than the first . Same is true of the fed doesn’t get a handle of the inflation in the near term. The depth of the recession will be amplified the higher inflation goes

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bannannamo t1_iufj1vk wrote

I dont see why unemployment would cause deflation. It's not like the working class caused food, oil, college, housing prices to rise.

But judging by our history of inflation, I don't see commodity prices ever going down. Seems more like the working class is paying for it on both ends. They sure as shit didn't manufacture an ongoing liquidity crisis. Maybe housing will dip with rate hikes, but it won't last long.

I'd look at the other folks with 90% of the money supply who aren't going to get laid off. Banks, ultra rich, and many of our elected officials. They're all safe when it hits and will be buying our failed investments in bulk yet again when workers lose jobs and have to sell assets, some they're still paying loans for, to survive.

This one is probably up to the fed raising rates high enough, which it hasn't. It'll cause unemployment for some companies who rely on debt heavily, but idk if I'd say unemployment is a solution so much as a symptom of nearly free (or actually free) loans over a decade to the upper class.

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Evn-erl t1_iufjoye wrote

At a certain point people will be unable to buy things which will force prices to stop going up in order to sell….like economics 101

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bannannamo t1_iuflykw wrote

Well 40 years strong of that not happening in this country as we continuously inflate, because our currency is inflationary by design.

We aren't going from 10% inflation to -9%. We are going to 2% target with about half the effort as in the 80s inflation crisis, and possibly higher inflation levels since our model for calculating has changed.

It's a game of chicken to see whose economy can afford to raise rates fastest to avoid devaluing their own country currency the most. What happens when they sell our fed bonds for liquidity?

So get ready for wendys to be hiring for 30/hr. It's already 23 here starting. I'm expecting the dollar milkshake or a quick move to a centralized crypto as jpow said to save the dollar.

Also he suggested inventing a 1 trillion dollar coin. Zimbabwe style.

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Evn-erl t1_iufm8ye wrote

Ok so…first…take an intro to economics class at your local community college. Way too many things factually wrong with your argument to engage

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Glittering-Tooth-836 t1_iugoelp wrote

Real life doesn't work like your Econ 101 class. Economics isn't anything close to an actual science or based on factual provable evidence based models anyway.

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Evn-erl t1_iuhh6nt wrote

Yes everything is a fun house, nothing is real, there are no general rules or basics. Everything is imaginary. Everyone is lying to to. Now go to the farm supply store and buy some drugs for this flu season and continue to take pride in rejecting any sort of acquired human knowledge.

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bannannamo t1_iufn11d wrote

Lmfao not 1 actual thing said except "no, me right"

Enjoy your unemployment, at least you'll be fixing the dollar. Sorry to say your economics 101 doesn't cover federal rates relations between countries.

8% rates aren't enough.

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Evn-erl t1_iufn8p8 wrote

Sir this is a Wendy’s drive through

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bannannamo t1_iufnr01 wrote

Fair enough. That guy's almost making my wage in automation anyways.

Dollar milkshake theory looking more real every day.

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RugTumpington t1_iuftga0 wrote

> Well 40 years strong of that not happening in this country as we continuously inflate, because our currency is inflationary by design.

You just fundamentally don't understand what you're talking about. It's not about bringing prices down, that would be a deflationary economy (negative inflation/CPI). Deflationary forces (e.x. lowering demand) are needed to lower inflation (the cost of good goes up but more slowly).

It has literally never been about making things cheaper than a year ago.

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RealMcGonzo t1_iufp9v0 wrote

>anyone with any sort of economic training has a tough time seeing prices increasing in perpetuity

Prices have increased for what? 70 years other than a couple blips? But hey, only ignorant folks think that will continue?

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Evn-erl t1_iufpiio wrote

At its current rate? Yeah no…doesn’t work like that

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RugTumpington t1_iuft7gg wrote

> actual recession where unemployment goes up

Ok but that's not what a recession is defined by. The unemployment is when the pendulum is swinging back to lower inflation via low demand

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