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DallasCCRN OP t1_iuhl9y0 wrote

Reply to comment by insan1k in Brazil short short short by DallasCCRN

I didn’t say that Lula will have a worse economic agenda than Bolsonaro.

I also didn’t say that a military dictatorship was a good solution.

Saying the Brazilian economy will tumble does not mean I want it to tumble, nor does it mean I, myself, am a supporter of one candidate over the other.

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insan1k t1_iuif990 wrote

Hey never claimed that, you in particular, were any of those things, but since you felt compelled to reply, there are a few things I would like to add.

A number of truckers on strike is in no way indicative of a imminent collapse of the supply chains, moreover dumb people chanting for a military dictatorship don't make one simply manifest, while you are right that Brazil has had a long history of authoritarian governments, the fact that is often missed in history however, is that the governments that achieved permanence by force in Brazil have some things in common:

  1. Massive support within the upper echelons of the military
  2. Support from external nation states
  3. Popular support.

Bolsonaro has little support with the high ranking officials of the army, his current vice president, could hold that prestige, but since he broke off with him and ran with a different less prestigious general as his vice-president this time around, we can scratch number 1 off the list.

With regards to support from external nation states, the only other world leader now willing to even meet with bolsonaro is Vladimir Putin, which for obvious reasons is not in a position to stage a coup in Brazil. The Americans hate the guy, especially in the Biden administration, since he decided to side with Trump when he was defeated.

Popular support, is up for debate, he might have that, based on the fact that he had 49% of the valid votes, how many of these voters would support a military dictatorship is unclear. Furthermore, it's an election with a high number abstentions, which make it even more ill defined.

If you look at Brazilian history, you can say for sure that so far, separatist movements have been dealt with in the most severe manner possible by the federal government, so far all of them have failed, so that would not be a concern for me.

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