Submitted by UserNameTycoon t3_ygsvuw in wallstreetbets
doublejay1999 t1_iuaewby wrote
I like this as an idea.
The problem is, the entire 'system' will move heaven & earth to avoid it - as least here in the UK where so much personal prosperity is dependent on realty only going up.
the biggest threat is working from home, and the UK government have already spoken a couple of times about getting back to the office, post Covid (in the name of protecting small retail, which is BS)
i'm sure you are already onto this, but basically :
- if people work from home, the requirement for city centre footprint for business is reduced.
- corps will have absolutely no hesitation in reducing their office space, getting the cost off their balance sheet
- this will result is a large oversupply of space, driving commercial prices down.
- because people no longer need to live a commutable distance from the city, there is a huge knock on effect for domestic real estate. who needs to pay a premium to live near the office ? so...
- house prices crash, landlords (with risings interest rates) are double fucked, and since buy-to-let is a major source of private pensions, they would be destitute in old age
practically speaking , working from home could bring the economy down. not to its knees, but face down in the dirt, and I fully expect conversation between government and major corps to have taken place already on this subject.
so, finding solid way to short commercial real estate sound like a jolly decent idea to me.
Spare-Competition-91 t1_iudjmaa wrote
Yeah, it's so funny how these companies and government work hand-in-hand to keep this sham of an economy going up and up. After reading, The Crash Course, and having my own thoughts on the subject before reading it, I can see this society, and the world economy, crashing worse than we've ever seen in human history within the next 10-15 years.
My bet, is that we go through another few waves, get a recession. Then boom, 10 years we get a major spike, and then at some point after that we lose everything before 2040.
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