Submitted by Fox_Technicals t3_ybppcw in wallstreetbets
Why isn't this talked about more? Someone please tell me what I'm missing here because I'm not a semiconductor or war expert in any way.
First, US Navy Chief Michael Gilday just came out saying there's a chance China moves on Taiwan in 2022 or 2023. I know there's always alarmist talk from military leaders to secure funding but holy shit that is next level alarmist if it's not true.
The US has absolutely no other option but to use physical force and troops in order to stop China from doing a full take over of TSM, who everyone knows is responsible for over 90% of the world's semiconductors manufacturing. I don't know of any Western semiconductor companies taking the reins here but I'm not up to date on all of them so I could be wrong. I'm not going to get into a dick swinging match of who would win this war but in the best case scenario, production still presumably grinds to halt for an extended period of time. Worst case scenario, the CCP gains full control over the world's leading technology chips. This puts ill-equipped Western semiconductor companies in a really fucked position that significantly impacts national security if not world's power dynamics, right?
My assumption is that TSM's moves in Arizona are directly related to the possiblity of a Chinese takeover but will this be achieved in its' entirety in time and can they really convince their best talent to come here? Presumably, TSM needs to essentially liquidate or move all their operations to Arizona in order to secure national security interests which the US obviously must know. I assume TSM's dramatic underperformance vs the S&P is a direct response to this threat but it doesn't seem to be getting any traction regarding just how fucked the world will be having the largest chip company with the most precious technology being under a volatile dictator's rule.
Is the world betting that the US handedly wins this? Are we betting the West can easily begin manufacturing comparable chips if this happens? Or are we just asleep watching a slow motion car wreck? Not to mention, it's likely going to be incredibly unpopular for citizens of NATO countries to risk lives on a Chinese internal conflict but I think it's irrefutably true that they will have to. What am I missing here?
Edit: Super tin foil hat take is that the semi shortage is a result of NATO stockpiling chips