Lucr3tius t1_iydvdbr wrote on November 30, 2022 at 5:50 PM

Reply to comment by dan5138 in Quit pretending like you care about the poor by H0lland0ats

>I feel like we have enough information available to model the economy

I disagree. Analysts are frequently wildly off in their predictions for metrics like GDP, Job Growth, CPI etc... Now it could be argued that they're playing the "consumer confidence" game and they know they're full of shit just painting a rosy picture, but I'm more inclined to believe that they're simply morons. If it was just a consumer confidence game and they really knew what the under the hood situation looks like in the economy they wouldn't lose so much money.

H0lland0ats OP t1_iydwsjc wrote on November 30, 2022 at 5:59 PM

Yeah I mean they can't even accurately model weather for more than a few days. Why would they be able to accurately model the behavior of millions of people?

My background is in electrical engineering, and in math they call this "sensitivity to initial conditions" which simple means if any of your variables in your model are not instantiated perfectly, the entire system diverges. Modeling an entire economy is the definition of chaos.