It's really hard to say if there will be x or y in a market as volatile and unpredictable. Many think for sure based on x to be true, y must happen. Like today when rates go up, generally equities go down. But many puts just got liquidated..or are about to. You really never know.

So if I knew for sure a recession were coming id make bets based on that hypothesis and wait for confirmation in whatever way I could to justify that position.

If recessions happen you may want to look at calls on staples- idk about India but in usa that'd be consumer defensive plays.

If war is coming you naturally look at defense stocks

If recession is coming you stay clear of banks, or you may want to put some bets that banks will decline (they typically do).

You'd be looking for whatever trends you can find from previous recession to give you an idea where to bet what.