4troglodyte t1_j24onyi wrote on December 29, 2022 at 5:16 PM

Reply to comment by 0x11C3P in Amazon lost half its value this year as tech stocks got crushed and recession fears grew by predictany007

What is the basis of your expectation for a 20% leg down from here? Have you included AWS expectations in your calculus? Thanks

0x11C3P t1_j24pb1o wrote on December 29, 2022 at 5:20 PM

Dwindling e-commerce. AWS no longer growing at growth valuation rate. Increased borrowing costs. Overcapacity. Looming recession. Fed rates not being cut till end of 2023/early 2024.

I made a model after their last disappointing earnings and with certain guesstimates, I came to somewhere 20% below from here.

I'm not saying it'll go straight down from here. There will be choppiness but I gather it'll hit somewhere near bottom around 20% as they try and finally cut some overhead.

4troglodyte t1_j24r0a8 wrote on December 29, 2022 at 5:31 PM

I appreciate your DD and thoughts about the trajectory of the stock. I entered into my first position beginning last Thursday and Friday. I added another 100 shares yesterday and hoped to add another 100 shares today but it has lifted back off this morning. I want to hold a small 700 share position (600 now) and stay long for 24 months barring black swan. I concede AWS penetration has slowed but don’t believe it is adequately valued in overall stock price. I stand by recovery to $170 by first quarter of 2025. Thanks for taking a minute to help me understand your premiss🙏🏻

0x11C3P t1_j24rync wrote on December 29, 2022 at 5:37 PM

If you believe in the company, just DCA into it. I could be wrong as I'm not a wizard. I just feel the era of growth companies is gone for the time being and most growth companies, if they survive, won't hit recent high valuations for years.

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j27bul4 wrote on December 30, 2022 at 4:07 AM

The problem with handling Amazon earnings since EOY 2021 is that shit stick RIVN bet they marked to market for a blowout Q4 and then got massacred in Q1 2022 on.

The fact is that Amazon's revenue has doubled since 2017/2018, which is the last time you could buy the equity at $85ish. Considering they figured they could cut 20,000 people, I imagine they have plenty of net income they can squeeze out before their core businesses start to suffer.

If it does drop another 20%, I will be pleased as punch because that means I will virtually triple my money over the next 3-5 years.