people have been cancelling liek crazy and walking away from deposits...oh no the builders keep the deposit and then drop the price by 10% and sell it to someone else and still keep a huge margin.

Look there are risks here no doubt, but right now every builder has GFC being priced in when it is in every politicians best interest (including Jerome) to keep the housing ponzi going.

Speculators are gonna get blown out coz they need a 6% increase just to break even post fees and what not, but homebuilders keep margins even if speculators lose money. Go thru their income statements, 20% margins broadly, and their costs have been coming down as speculators get iced

So let me explain what is ACTUALLY happening because these other people clearly don't Trust me it not I don't care We have inventory that we built at let's say FOR EXAMPLE 100psf and we anticipated selling for 35% gross margin when we started those homes 8 months ago up until just the past three months we started lowering the pricing so we are still willing to accept a lower gross margin though it hurts the people who just bought in the community (oh well) So those inventory homes we started 5-8 months ago are not selling now in certain areas. We have the margin spread to still make profit beyond expectation prior to Covid. And to hit our numbers (sales only) we will lower the prices all for that signature

So now what is happening is the prices are dropping inventory is increasing cancellations have tripled in past 3 months (hard facts) We still built these homes at 10X lumber costs The stupid response from regards that lumber is almost back to normal doesn't apply to Jack shit until 8-10 months from now Anyone who tells you different is clearly sniffing shit out of grandmas toilet

EVERY National home builder is projecting layoffs in various forms beginning this quarter some like toll have drastically cut staffing in various regions where I am located

Nothing would please me more than to come here and applaud our efforts nationally but I'm telling you facts behind the scenes that exist in private upper level conversations that 2023' is uncertain at best. Negative is anticipated and "get ready for bleak 2nd half" Most of us National builders have backlog sales up to the second quarter this year meaning. We have started homes with declared /projected profit margins based on closings through may/June Sales dropping immensely curbs these expectations after this timeframe This is a RACE to fill our backlog with margins that make sense and keep an "even flow" projection through the year Most if not ALL divisions and companies are projecting even or negative start/closings/sales for back half 23' Some of us will project even comparing 22-23' which is a RARE declaration in todays world. Do what you want with this. Down vote me or ask me anything I don't care

It’s just a crowded short. Everyone knew rates were going up months ago. Time to do that would have been 4-6 months ago.