Submitted by thatguy201717 t3_zypuwy in wallstreetbets
Every time I turn on CNBC or Bloomberg there's talking heads describing American's as having strong personal balance sheets. I call bullshiit. The American Consumer is nearly tapped out of all savings, credit card debt has been on a strong increase the past few months. The warning signs are everywhere if you really look. Now that we're passed the the holiday season, three major things will happen:
1- American consumption spending will fall off a Cliff. They are tapped out, credit cards are nearly maxed out. Ask me, I know :(
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2-Layoffs layoffs and more layoffs. As of November, unemployment rate is 3.7%. A lot of companies don't like to layoff during Thanksgiving and Christmas season. Google has been reluctant to layoff a significant portion of their staff...Expect Google to cut at least 3-8% off their workforce. Some friends in healthcare and other industries, especially in the discretionary spending sector are all Saying they will will let a great number of blue collar workers off in the coming months. Consumers won't and can't spend, no need for companies to be fully staffed. I'm expecting unemployment to hit 5-0% to 5.75% in 2023.
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3- Housing market and rental prices will see a significant decrease. Overall Inflation will drop significantly after February. Great news right? No, not necessarily. See reason 1 & 2. Things will get ugly out there. For those older Millennial's, ask them if they remember 2008-2012 in the real world, where are the good jobs?
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-As for the stock market, expect a major selloff in the coming 20-35 trading days. Earnings season will be bad in for Q4 2022 and much worse for Q1/Q2 2023.
Jan-October will be ugly in the real world. Really nothing the feds can do to stop the economy and jobs from vomiting and shedding workforce. We just gotta ride this tidal wave coming at us...2024 should be a much better year for stocks and jobs.
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- Just my autistic view on the economy and markets.