Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

n1ck90z t1_j6onkj5 wrote

Campbell Harvey who basically introduced the yield curve as a recession indicator believes this time is a false positive

43

random-smile t1_j6p6st3 wrote

the classic “this time is different”

31

EnthusiasmOne5717 t1_j6p8n81 wrote

the classic survivorship bias - you just see the times when it wasnt different. and all the times it had a different outcome of course dont appear in your peer group data

5

Ak47killer122 t1_j6p7bbo wrote

Considering the limited data it could easily be different

3

MicroBadger_ t1_j6osbw4 wrote

Depth of inversion also doesn't mean worse recession as the dot com recession had a steeper inversion than 08. We could still have a mild recession vs Armageddon like the post wants to imply.

10

crom_laughs t1_j6oo1od wrote

and stocks never rally in a recession?

4

n1ck90z t1_j6oonxo wrote

That's another story. A recession would force FED to pause or cut rates, so it would still be difficult to predict the market

6