Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

FracturedSoula t1_j6nizxa wrote

Are people here really betting on him going 50 instead of 25? Truly regarded.

26

ambermage t1_j6oz7rg wrote

He should do 100 and then yell "Fucked around and found out!"

19

Business_System3319 t1_j6o6ym4 wrote

No, it’s already overbought on a pivot and rate cuts but there’s a 95 percent chance it’s two 25s then halt and wait for a market response. 4.9999999 percent 50 and .00000001% 75

4

Robincapitalists t1_j6odjlb wrote

I don't know why the market is stuck on 2 25 hikes. That would leave them at 4.75-5%. Under their dot plot, under what they project the end rate to be (which is 5.1, so they'd go 5-5.25)?

4

Hopkinskid2022 t1_j6oha2k wrote

Their dot plot is projection and can change. If they project 5.1, and they leave it at 5%, nothing new or game changing. Plus if you look at past fed minutes from past years, there’s always doves and there’s always hawks…and depending on the environment, one has influence over the other…last year the hawks won…this year, the doves may

Plus look at the bond market and treasury yields to figure out where that market thinks fed funds rates will be.

6

Robincapitalists t1_j6oqmop wrote

Over the last 6 months their end rate has moved up, as has the time they anticipate holding it that high. So yes, it can change, and did change to higher and longer.

The markets, equities and bonds are stuck in 2020, 2021 thinking. My opinion.

5

Hopkinskid2022 t1_j6p44r7 wrote

I think the markets are waiting for that pivot where their end rate remains static (versus the end rate going up every fed meeting since last summer, as you mentioned). I think that’s the catalyst the markets are looking for (not 25 vs 50 bps, but more the messaging).

2

Robincapitalists t1_j6pa5xu wrote

If the markets rally, the Fed will just keep raising and or hold the rate at 5% for a long time until the markets get the message. The Fed is not happy the market is trying to lead on a pivot.

I think we are in a different era. 2010s low-rate Fed assistance. I believe that is over for a long time.

7

Business_System3319 t1_j6odvf6 wrote

That’s a fair point which is probs why a 50 then a 25 would make the most logical sense so they don’t have to keep doing 25 rates until it goes down.

5