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Loki-Don t1_ja1dfqf wrote

“Lowest number since 1970s blah blah blah” DC population is current 100,000 less than that period so of course the police count would be lower.

DCs issue isn’t that it doesn’t have enough LEOs. It’s that it’s LEOs are shit and the DC Council ties their hands.

The District has more cops per capita than ANY city in the US.

Better yet, that’s doesn’t include the thousands of addition LEOs who have jurisdiction over areas of the District.

The NPS has police jurisdiction over RCP and the National Mall.

The Capitol Police are thousands in number and have jurisdiction over Cap Hill and adjacent neighborhoods.

The Federal Police have responsibility over every Federal building not patrolled by the NPS or Cap Police.

The Transit Police have responsibility over Metro.

These additional agencies total nearly 4,000 additional LEOs. I mean, Jesus. DC has more cops per capita and yet doesn’t have responsibility to patrol 25% of the city land, any of the federal buildings, nor its transit system.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja1ex2q wrote

We have 3,300~ officers currently — in comparison we had 4,000~ officers as recently as 2013, when murders were about half of what they are now. Draw your own conclusions.

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oxtailplanning t1_ja1ll3f wrote

I conclude that the police didn't do as much to reduce crime as you'd think.

Also do any cops in DC actually get out of their cars and walk the beat.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja2rc79 wrote

Why would you conclude that? Why did murders more than double during that same period? And before you say Covid, they were rising before 2020.

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[deleted] t1_ja2x5pv wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja35iw6 wrote

Look at murder rates (which can’t be fake and don’t suffer from reporting issues) in DC vs. the US. You see your DC centric spike in crime there very clearly.

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[deleted] t1_ja35tlh wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja35xi3 wrote

Now compare 2013 to 2023.

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[deleted] t1_ja36az8 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja36nhr wrote

I am saying the nationwide increase in murders is less than the increase in murders in DC on a per capital basis. This further correlates with a drop in the number of police officers during that same period in DC. Hence, the drop in police officers correlates with a disproportionate surge in crime in DC. Can you follow?

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[deleted] t1_ja37yrj wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja388la wrote

1)The increase in DC is higher; 2) There are similar trends with declining numbers of police officers in those cities too; 3) I agree a more progressive prosecutorial posture when it comes to enforcement is also to blame.

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[deleted] t1_ja38dtv wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja39fyu wrote

Same place you’re getting your data from. BTW I’m referencing a ten-year period here, not from 2020 onward.

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[deleted] t1_ja39zc3 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3aoff wrote

Huh staffing issues started around a decade ago.

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[deleted] t1_ja3aysr wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3c5oy wrote

Well in this case the escalating staffing issues resulted in an increased (i.e. over doubling of the) murder rate…so maybe we should listen to them?

Also some user posted an analysis awhile back about how DC will always need more police officers per capita than other cities because they have to staff more protests, protect more soft targets, etc.

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[deleted] t1_ja3cc67 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3ivdw wrote

Use three year rolling averages. Numbers are all there.

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[deleted] t1_ja3jqe8 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3li9j wrote

You just said the data didn’t show a correlation — so don’t you have the data in front of you?

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[deleted] t1_ja3lmtx wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3lz8t wrote

What does that list have to do with the increase in murder rate in DC from 2013-2022?

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[deleted] t1_ja3m739 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3mxbx wrote

Are you really this dense? I never claimed that. I said that the relative INCREASE in the murder rate in DC from 2013-2022 outpaced other cities (while the number of police officers declined), not that the absolute number was the highest in the country at any point.

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[deleted] t1_ja3nzn0 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3xbuk wrote

On what basis do you say the rise was not more radical than any other city (and how do you separate that from other cities also losing officers during this period).

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[deleted] t1_ja3xon6 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja46gee wrote

On what basis are you claiming that the top 20 cities in the US by population had their murder rates increase by more than double from 2013-2022?

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[deleted] t1_ja47usk wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja4iwla wrote

Okay so is that “no basis”?

There were 103 murders in DC in 2013 and 221 in 2021. That’s over double in 9 years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Washington,_D.C.

So I guess we accept you were wrong at this stage?

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[deleted] t1_ja5bip8 wrote

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja5tzyu wrote

I’d check those numbers again buddy. And how many of those cities also had declining numbers of police officers?

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OctoberCaddis t1_ja369ag wrote

Thanks for checking one of my crime apologist bingo squares, “crime also occurs elsewhere, so we should ignore it here”.

Bet if I scroll down you probably covered “it’s not as bad as the 90s”, too.

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Loki-Don t1_ja25uww wrote

Back in 2011, MPD had roughly 3,900 officers and the city recorded over 7,000 violent crimes and made 44,000 arrests. Last year, though, MPD had about 300 fewer officers — and there were just over 4,100 violent crimes and 16,900 arrests.

Draw your own conclusions but the numbers say your conclusions are highly selective, immaterial and nearly identical to the increased murder rate across the nation, not just DC.

DC has 25% more cops per capita than NYC (whose cops also patrol their transit system).

20% more than Chicago, 30% more than Boston and Detroit, twice as many cops per capita as LA.

And again, this doesn’t include all the other adjacent police agencies in DC that reduce MPDs overall responsibility.

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Evening_Chemist_2367 t1_ja3ahjw wrote

It's kind of amazing how for example I see Park Police, Secret Service and other agencies pulling cars over for traffic violations than I do MPD. And it's not like MPD isn't there, the violations happen right in front of their cruisers but they just sit there and do nothing.

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qpdbun t1_ja3d5t2 wrote

It’s amazing that those agencies have literally nothing else to do but traffic. A park, capitol, or secret service officer will very regularly go an entire shift without one call for service.

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thebarkingdog t1_ja5xh1l wrote

Those agencies don't have to respond to 911 calls for service.

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Evening_Chemist_2367 t1_ja6o1yg wrote

Uhhh right. So it's fine for MPD to sit around ignoring crime in front of their face all day long just because they *might* get a 911 call. And let's face it, they try not to respond to a big chunk of the 911 calls they get, either.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja2r6kv wrote

Yeah the violent crime statistics can easily be juked (as is supported by the numbers re: actual arrests) year over year and suffer from reporting bias. Now do the same analysis with murders — you can’t fake a murder rate or hide a body. That’s your best proxy for overarching crime trends. And the correlation with the number of officers employed is crystal clear.

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Loki-Don t1_ja2tpzp wrote

Lol…talking about “juking the numbers” that’s exactly what you did, no?

You used 2013, probably because it was a highly anomalous year that sold the story you wanted to tell with the second lowest number of homicides on record. A number that immediate shot up in the year and second year following when there were the same number of cops.

In 2010 when the number of DC cops was higher by 38,there were 30% more homicides than in 2013. How is that possible if your correlation to the number of cops and murders is supposedly true?

In 2008, when the number of DC cops was higher by 50, the number of murders was 83% higher than in 2013? How is that possible?

You are only right if correlation = causation, which simply is t true.

DC literally has more cops per capita than any other US city, by a margin, despite our coos having fewer responsibilities.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja359r5 wrote

Now do three year rolling average trends of murder rates correlated to number of police officers. The data is very obviously there to prove my point as much as you’d like to pretend otherwise.

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Loki-Don t1_ja3eeyq wrote

No it doesn’t. Full stop. Also, quit moving the goal lines. You’ve lost this argument, admit it like an adult and move on. DC is the most overpoliced City in the nation despite adjacent LE agencies taking enormous responsibility from MPD

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3j7k2 wrote

Huh? I’m sorry you can’t do data analysis? Numbers are all there.

DC also has a much higher base line policing requirement due to staffing protests and protecting soft targets. So the comparison of police officers to other U.S. cities is just sort of sadly ignorant of the underlying arguments here.

More cops = less murders. Sorry that makes you upset.

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Loki-Don t1_ja3jrlj wrote

Link your data.

Also, what’s your excuse for both significantly more cops, significantly lower population and 2X the number of murders through the 1990s?

That can’t be explained if more cops = less murder.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja3l4yw wrote

You just said the data doesn’t show a correlation — soo don’t you have the data in front of you?

More cops = less crime in the long-run compared to baseline existing crime rate (caused by external social factors). The 90s were the height of the crack epidemic, the baseline crime rate was far higher — and over time, the police were able to bring the crime rate down.

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Loki-Don t1_ja40hbu wrote

I have my data from MPDs website. You are the one making the outlandish claims that aren’t supported by DC or any other cities data (more cops = less murder” so you must have some other source of data. Link it here.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja46ay7 wrote

Great then you can clearly see that murders nearly double from 2013-2022 while the number of MPD officers declined by 20%~ during that same period.

So where’s the controversy here? The numbers speak for themselves.

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Loki-Don t1_ja4gdvt wrote

Lol…you aren’t equipped for this.

Peak DC cop numbers were 1999. It’s been slowly declining since.

Yet murders steadily declined for the next 13 years despite MPD losing hundreds of cops.

Less cops yet fewer murders for 13 years. Explain.

Then 2015-2019, the number of murders stayed statistically static, despite MPD losing hundreds more. Explain.

Your argument is juvenile and o Lu works if you exclude decades of data precovid and data showing the murder rate increase in DC for that 2 year Covid period was mirrored exactly across the cities in the rest of the nation. It was a national trend, not a local anomaly.

Back to the kids table son, the adults are speaking.

1985 147 1986 194 1987 225 1988 369 1989 434 1990 472 1991 482 1992 443 1993 454 1994 399 1995 360 1996 397 1997 301 1998 260 1999 241 2000 239 2001 241 2002 264 2003 249 2004 198 2005 195 2006 169 2007 181 2008 186 2009 145 2010 132 2011 108 2012 88 2013 103 2014 105 2015 162 2016 136 2017 116 2018 160 2019 166 2020 198 2021 226 2022 203

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja4htra wrote

“Then 2015-2019, the number of murders stayed statistically static” — LOL, do a three year rolling average please. You’ll see exactly what I’m describing, murders go up while the number of cops go down.

Also I’m going to assume the “actually murders went down after the crack epidemic of the 90s subsided” argument is trolling so I won’t bother to address it (for your sake I hope you’re not actually making this argument).

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Loki-Don t1_ja4ojkl wrote

Dude, you can’t dismiss 16 years of both declining cop counts and murders because “muh, crack in the 1990s”, yet then think 2 years during Covid when murders were increasing nationally( and is now declining) is “finally” indicative of DCs declining cop counts showing up in the murder rate?

You can’t possibly be that daft. Or you must be a cop, and not a bright one at that.

Cheers mate, go on believing DC isn’t the most policied city in America.

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BrightThru2014 t1_ja5uhw4 wrote

Again, if you take a rolling three-year average of murder rates for each year from 2013-2022, they consistently increase over the last decade, mirroring the decline in employed police officers. Are you able to understand what I’m saying?* We are talking numbers here so there’s not really room for interpretation.

*So the rolling murder rate in 2013 would be the average from 2011-2013, for 2014 it would be the average of 2012-2014, etc. This helps flatten the otherwise moderately noisy year-over-year data to generate longer term trend lines.

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brodies t1_ja3603u wrote

I want one specific data point on violent crime: how much of the reduction is due to a reduction in snatch and grab robberies of phones? It’s a violent crime as defined by DC (and most jurisdictions), and due to that, when you looked at crime maps in the early 2010s, many of the most “violent” places were near popular metro stations like Dupont Circle. With Apple and Google increasingly making phones worth less and less to steal (by locking them down, etc, such that a theft now is good only for conning someone into buying a useless phone or parting it out), those crimes have seemed to drop precipitously.

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thebarkingdog t1_ja5xts7 wrote

None of those agencies (except Metro Transit) respond to 911 calls for service.

Metro Transit does but they're so short, they've started to pay MPD officers to work overtime at certain stations.

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Loki-Don t1_ja68xuc wrote

That’s simply not true. The websites for Cap Police and NPS Police even reference reaching them via 911.

DCs office of unified communications gets the 911 call and then depending where it is, routes the NPS, the Cap Police etc to the scene.

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