Grunchlk t1_j9oscwk wrote
Reply to comment by 3dio in Iran acknowledges accusation it enriched uranium to 84% by bildo72
You don't believe Iran has mastered the fuel cycle? That's demonstrably true and universally accepted. The UN, IAEA, US, EU, etc, all agree that Iran has. The fact that they can trivially produce 84% HEU is also proof.
You don't believe Iran has missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads? I'll defer to Uzi Rabin, the father of Israel's missile program, who says they do and also says their missiles are quite more advanced that people believe.
You don't believe Iran has conducted implosion tests? This is one of the major sticking points of the JCPOA, the US and UN want access to Parchin because they have evidence that Iran did exactly that.
If you believe all these things are lies then you believe that Iran isn't capable of building a bomb, and thus any talk of such is propaganda.
3dio t1_j9ospvo wrote
>If you believe all these things are lies then you believe that Iran isn't capable of building a bomb, and thus any talk of such is propaganda.
Iran can have a bomb within a week. The question is how many of them can they make and maintain in the long term
Grunchlk t1_j9ousn1 wrote
I don't disagree that Iran could make one quickly (miniaturization would take a bit longer though.) I do disagree that they're already making one because they've had this capacity for 20 years now. 2002 is when they performed the implosion tests:
As of now Iran benefits more from threatening to cross the line that it does if it actually crosses it. Iran is hoping to leverage the threat to get a better deal. Maybe that won't work because of their support of Russia in the Ukraine War. However, that's what they're likely doing. If they cross the line then they likely get attacked by Israel, KSA and the US as well as max sanctions, embargoes, blockades, etc.
I highly expect Iran to state they'll be converting the TRR back to using HEU (as per its original design) instead of LEU. Then they'll have a legitimate reason for needing large quantities of weapons grade uranium. This puts them as close to that line as possible without crossing it.
If Israel, the US and KSA attack then Iran will make a bomb immediately and detonate one in the desert signalling the attacks are an existential threat which they'll respond to with maximum force.
The benefit of the JCPOA wasn't that it prevented Iran from having the know-how to make a bomb, it was that it ensured all the monitored uranium wasn't diverted and that it was converted to fuel rods (or at least stored in UN monitored containers/locations.) It also gave the IAEA broader ability to monitor for a parallel program.
3dio t1_j9pvess wrote
Here's to hoping no more wars and that the situation can somehow defuse itself
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments