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pauelena t1_j9o0z6q wrote

Reply to comment by Scapenator1 in Erdogan drops idea to postpone elections by sherry_waseer

He will not lose, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, Turks love him and secondly, he has no credible opponent.

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jogarz t1_j9o2lnm wrote

Polls from mid-2022 show him losing to several different candidates, and I don’t think recent events will boost his chances.

If he wins, it will probably be because he cheated in some way. Since his party controls the Electoral Committee, they could probably get away with a lot of fuckery short of outright fraud.

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pauelena t1_j9o8pmk wrote

Mid 2022 is nearly a year ago! The Ukrainian grain deal and the recent earthquakes cemented his image as a powerful statesman.

Putin and Erdogan should never be underestimated! No matter what they do or say, no matter how suicidal their policies might be, they are practically worshipped by the vast majority of their population. Talk to the average Turk in Germany and you'd think Erdoğan is some kind of demigod.

The opposition lacks a credible leader that could pose a realistic threat to Erdoğan's re-election.

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Lurkersremorse t1_j9ofe5s wrote

Didn’t the recent earthquakes show that the Turkish earthquake grants were at best severely misappropriated?

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green_flash t1_j9q9fad wrote

The Turkish language variant of the page shows more recent polls.

The most recent one is from Jan 27 to Feb 2nd and it shows Kılıçdaroğlu winning against Erdoğan with 46.3% to 40.1% in the first round, 48.2% to 40.3% in a potential run-off, with 11.5% undecided.

That was still before the earthquake though. It will remain to be seen what effect the earthquake and Erdoğan's response to it has.

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