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SleepyNervousBoi t1_jabu1um wrote

Reply to comment by fortevn in Ukraine war: Zelensky says situation in Bakhmut worsening by jacobhong

I’ve read in military nerd forums about it because I’ve been confused by mixed claims. as I understand it, the city is not itself strategic for logistics or rail or anything. But it is important for Russia to take it to be able to take more important cities like kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

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thederpofwar321 t1_jabw96q wrote

Its the type of city you hold to buy time, not to win. If its clear holding will be too risky then they'll have to just pull back and repeat elsewhere.

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BlessedTacoDevourer t1_jacluzx wrote

As it looks currently, Russia will most likely focus on capturing Chasiv Yar, a city close to Bakhmut. It's the only line of supply into Bakhmut itself and capturing it would cut off the Ukrainians in Bakhmut from being resupplied or reinforced. The assumption being that since Ukraine would operationally encircled they would be forced to withdraw their troops, allowing Russia to move in. If this happens, Russia would likely move into Konstantinovka to straighten their frontline which would let their artillery advance and target the next area.

There are two main reason why the advances are made in small steps.

  1. Essentially every little village along the front is a stronghold and incredibly difficult and costly to capture

  2. Russian troops want to stay in range of their short range howitzers and MLRS. Russia has suffered from bad communication already and presumably this is a way to combat that.

Its worth noting that this is a best case scenario for Russia, if Bakhmut falls the troops in Siversk would then be at risk. If this happens the Russians will most likely attack Siversk from Soledar, Lysychansk and Bilohorivka.

If this is successful then Russia could take the M03 highway and move onto Sloviansk. Advancing in this manner would mean advancing for 40km on a very narrow stretch of land, obviously putting those Russians in major risk of being cut off and encircled by the Ukrainians. The likely way Russia will attempt to combat this is by using their troops in Konstantinovka to take the H20 highway and move on Kramatorsk at the same time. This would mean a Russian advance of 30km.

Bakhmut started in August 2022, so it's unlikely that this will be successful, though I'm basing this on information from Feb 13. Something that complicates it is the elevation difference between Sloviansk and Krasna Hora. It's an advantage for Ukraine as it would allow them to see the Russians easier. A similar advantage has been used in Vuhledar to stop the Russians from advancing.

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