Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je78nek wrote on March 29, 2023 at 10:27 PM

Reply to comment by FlamingMothBalls in Russia Says Ukraine Using Long-Range US Artillery by TallAd3975

I do not even think it will get to a stage where he will get a full blown civil war. I mean, look at the protests at the start of the war, those were pretty huge and it died down. Of course, the protests will be even larger if he loses Crimea but I do not really see a pathway to outright rebellion. I mean, his army is puttin down refuseniks very effectively now. Unless the officers rebel too of course, but I cannot foresee that happening, at least not yet. Maybe once the officers realise they have a high chance of dying when US enters the fray, only then they will rebel.

Again, US should tilt Putin calculations such that losing Crimea is an acceptable risk.

FlamingMothBalls t1_je79avb wrote on March 29, 2023 at 10:32 PM

I was thinking the same thing. Putin's reign is secure. He's not going anywhere, and because of that, he won't suicide himself by starting a nuclear war.

Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je7bfnl wrote on March 29, 2023 at 10:48 PM

Ironically, the fact that Putin's reign is secure might be better for Ukraine's prospects for retaking Crimea, because Biden might just decide to support Ukraine for retaking Crimea.

FlamingMothBalls t1_je7ceju wrote on March 29, 2023 at 10:55 PM

true. tho I wonder if it's physically, militarily possible.

Real Life Lore had an interesting take on the issue. Not sure how on the money the video is, but it would be a massacre to try to take it by force. It's always been (except for 2014 when Ukraine had no choice but to mostly give it up without a fight).

Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je7hdq8 wrote on March 29, 2023 at 11:33 PM

Well, the alternative plan he talked about where Ukraine walks across the swamp, the Syvash, is probably the best plan. I have not yet seen any detailed operational plans discussed anywhere else so I will not say it here. I suggest you look at the Siege of Perekop, where the Soviets walked across the swamp, the Syvash, to flank enemy positions and take them by surprise. I think it might be workable for light infantry. Nevertheless, the Soviets took heavy casualties in taking Crimea.