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ivegoturnumber t1_iu4zklv wrote

major wars are the fastest and the most guaranteed ways to change the actual balance of power, as they have been throughout history, and by following up on the developments of the war in Ukraine it becomes clear that:

1- Russia did not start the war in #Ukraine in order to defend the Russian-speaking people in the Donbas region, even though it was its pretext, but also ignited it to strengthen Russia's international position. At the verge of igniting the war, Russia demanded security guarantees from Europe, America and NATO, and those guarantees included the non-inclusion of Ukraine to NATO. These Russian aims resulting from what the Russians consider a Western injustice against Russia and an unfairness to its international position as a first-class nuclear power was evident in all statements issued by Moscow before the war. This is also confirmed by Moscow’s insistence on those guarantees and that America and the West provide them in written form. Therefore, and this is very important, America, followed by Europe, has dealt with the Russian war as a rebellion against the international system and not just land claims from Ukraine or in defense of the Russians in eastern Ukraine. The position of America and the West was completely different to the similar position in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, that is, it was at the level of dealing with a major country that rebelled against the Western international system, which #America alone leads.

2- Therefore, the American and European response was severe against Russia, and Russia, which is famous for its political futility, did not expect it... Therefore, America and Europe imposed on it the toughest sanctions in history, and froze its funds abroad, and those countries cut their ties with Russia despite the great need of Europe for Russian oil and gas. Europe, especially Germany, started arming again, and America and Europe started providing massive military support to Ukraine. In the wake of the #Russian_war in Ukraine, America demonstrated its leadership of the West clearly and unequivocally after it was doubtful during former President Trump’s term. America filled many gaps in its relations with its allies. Due to the reality of the Russian power that pushes Moscow forward was unclear at the beginning of the war as it is clear today, more than half a year after its entry into Ukraine, America has begun providing military aid to Ukraine gradually, and was watching Moscow's reaction to it, and with the passage of time, the Russian red lines began to fall one after the other, and America and its allies broke the red lines of Russia. Then crossed it beyond them without Russia being able to deter it, and bringing down these lines was to provide military aid to Ukraine and increase it in quantity and quality, from defence to attack... Thus, after America was not encouraging Ukraine to attack Russia in Crimea, it started to encourage it.

3- With its strategic stupidity, Russia rushed recklessly to occupy the Ukrainian lands, and due to its feeling of superiority over Ukraine, it rushed in the depth towards the capital, Kiev, and failed to occupy it and retreated to Donbas. But this retreat revealed a great weakness in the Russian army. Russia did not introduce its aircraft and did not control the airways in Ukraine, and it was not able to provide logistical support to its advanced forces, and was caught by surprise by the size of the Ukrainian resistance, contrary to what its intelligence had expected. Thus, a serious military weakness was revealed in the Russian army, which created great hopes in #Washington for its defeat in Ukraine. It turned out that Russian President Putin's statements about Russian power were not compatible with the poor field performance of his army. Due to the impact of this exposed weakness on the ground, foreign embassies returned to Kiev after they were closed, and Western officials flocked to the Ukrainian capital one after the other.

4- America began to announce the goals of the military aid to Ukraine, and the announcement of these American goals had a thunderbolt effect in Moscow. America collected field intelligence information via satellite for Ukraine and provided it with military advice. Even the Chief of Staff of the #US_Army said that he calls his Ukrainian counterpart seven times in the week (Al-Jazeera, September 2022), and by all accounts, this means that America considers the war in Ukraine its war, but without direct participation in it. Indeed, America announces on a weekly basis that additional military aid is provided to Ukraine in billions of dollars. In the sense that America is determined to defeat Russia in Ukraine and remove it from the list of major countries, and this is what Russia is now realizing, but it is too late!

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ivegoturnumber t1_iu4zpt4 wrote

5- Among the indicators of Russia’s strategic weakness that were revealed is that it continued to supply oil and gas to Europe during the six months of the war, even though #Europe announced openly that it was on its sure way to give up Russian oil and gas imports, meaning that it did not initiate cutting off oil and gas from countries that declare their hostility to it morning and night. This indicates the severity of Moscow's need for money, despite its bragging that its economy was not affected by Western sanctions and that the ruble is steadfast in the face of sanctions! And if Russia had completely cut off the Nord Stream 1 gas supply line in early September 2022 before the explosions, but that came too late, and it has been declaring that it is a reliable supplier of energy, on the one hand, and on the other hand, other gas supply lines to Europe, such as the Yamal transiting Poland, Progress and Soyuz lines crossing Ukraine, and Turk Stream pipeline transiting #Turkey are still operating and feeding Europe with gas, except for those branches that were cut off by Poland and Ukraine and not by Russia. Russia's need for money has made it lose its dignity in the international arena. This contradicts its efforts prior to the war to enhance its international standing!

6- Moreover, Russia was surprised by the recent Chinese positions that emerged during the Samarkand Summit of the leaders of the Shanghai Organization, which was held in mid-September 2022 i.e., shortly after Russia's defeats in Kharkov. Those positions that the Russian president himself revealed when he expressed his #understanding of "China's fears and concerns." from the war in Ukraine, and (Putin said - in his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine - that Russia appreciates China's "balanced" position on the Ukrainian crisis. (Al Jazeera Net, 15/9/2022). Thus, it became clear to Russia that the position of China, with which it signed a cooperation agreement “to the fullest extent” before the war in Ukraine, has become “balanced”, that is, it is neither with Russia nor with Ukraine and the West. In fact, #China refrained from even mentioning the name “Ukraine” in its joint statements with Russia at the Shanghai Summit and in the statements of its president, but only hinted to that. There is no reasonable doubt that America is showing China the danger of any support for Russia in its war in Ukraine, which is undoubtedly something that China responded to, fearing for its international trade... Therefore, it did not support Russia against the Security Council resolution that denounced the annexation of the four regions in Ukraine. On 1/10/2022, France 24 published the following: (On Friday, Russia has used its veto to prevent the adoption of a draft resolution in the UN Security Council condemning its annexation of four Ukrainian regions... The draft resolution prepared by the United States and Albania was supported by ten member states in contrast to four countries that abstained: China, India, Brazil, Gabon...)

7- In light of all that was mentioned, the Russian attack on Ukraine, which did not succeed in Ukraine’s surrender to Russia’s conditions, reveals a serious military weakness of Russia, and reveals qualitative and large military support from America and the West to Ukraine, some of which are public and some of which are hidden, and because Russia has seen these new facts which it did not expect before the war, Lavrov reminded on 12/9/2022 that Russia does not refuse #negotiations with Ukraine (Al-Jazeera, 12/9/2022), but he realizes that the terms of Russian surrender that were placed on Ukraine’s table in the first days of the war have evaporated. There is no hope to restore those Russian conditions except by Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, which is perhaps Russia’s last card at all, but it also knows that the use of nuclear weapons will drag America to war in one way or another, and it is unable to achieve victory in its war with the Ukrainian army, which receives American aid, so how can it achieve it if the US army participated in the war. This is why Russia after the Ukrainian attack is in a difficult situation.

8- Russia realized all these dangers, and its president showed his refusal to the defeat (Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the partial #mobilization of the army, referring to his country's exposure to nuclear threats. (Al Jazeera Net, 21/9/2022), as well as (representatives of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces supported by Russia, have announced their intention to organize referenda to join Russia from this September 23 to 27. (Turkish Anadolu Agency, 21/9/2022)). Indeed, the referendum took place and the annexation happened. Al Jazeera Net published on 30/9/2022 the following: (Russian President Putin announced that the Ukrainian regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson have become Russian. He also condemned in a lengthy speech what he called the West's control of the world order, while Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that his country had taken a "decisive step" in response to the Russian action). Despite that, the Ukrainian army continued its military actions inside these four regions... It was stated in the France 24 website on 01/10/2022: (A Ukrainian army spokesman announced the entry of his forces into the eastern town of Lyman after besieging the Russian forces around a very important stronghold of Moscow. While Russia confirmed that thousands of people withdrew from the town amid the continuation of the fighting. This is at the same time as Moscow continues to escalate politically after Russian President Vladimir Putin approved on Friday the annexation of four Ukrainian regions... The Ukrainian Defense Ministry wrote on Twitter (Ukrainian air attack forces enter Lyman in Donetsk region). Shortly before that, the Ukrainian army said that it was besieging thousands of Russian soldiers in this town located in the Donetsk region, which was annexed by Russia on Friday).

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