If the war had gone well for Russia in Ukraine, they would have been emboldened regarding their (explicit) plans to “reclaim” territory that is now in the EU and NATO. Europe’s original plan was to watch with horror as Ukraine fell in a matter of days. Russia would then reasonably assume there might be a weak response if they attacked the Baltics, for example.

No, I don’t think the West would be as secure in a world where Russia’s imperialist risk-taking paid off vs a world where it is being bled dry and hamstrung in some of the most humiliating circumstances imaginable.