A_Soporific t1_j22n07t wrote
Reply to comment by The-Brit in Covid in China: Countries tighten rules as tourism set to resume by redcccp
So, lockdowns don't get you herd immunity. Lockdowns slow down exposure rates, if you're not exposed or vaccinated you don't develop natural immunity. If you don't have natural immunity you will transmit it to others. If you are immune then you create a "wall" that the disease can't use to reach the next guy. Herd immunity is when you have enough immune people that the disease can't find enough vulnerable people to create a major outbreak.
Many Chinese people haven't been exposed before, so they're going to go through now what we went through two years ago. It's going to be really rough on them.
It's less a question of timing and more a question of preparedness. China didn't do the logistical work to prepare for the outbreak that was inevitable once they eased. The sudden flipping off of the policy instead of a phased, managed repeal is setting them up for a much harder landing than they needed to have. That's the controversial part, the fact that you can't stall forever and the only thing that lockdowns accomplish is to stall until something else is accomplished. So, the lockdowns had to end sooner or later. Early lockdowns were a great idea. We didn't have vaccines and treatments, so stalling until we had them was great idea. No one stalled better than the Chinese. It's just that once we had the vaccines and the drugs they didn't stock up on them and didn't distribute them effectively. They rejected the far more effective mRNA vaccines until this month despite being far more effective than local variants. Something like seven out of ten elderly Chinese didn't even get the local stuff.
They bought themselves two years, and did nothing with it. That's why people are pissed.
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