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ZiggyStardustEP t1_j1v529x wrote

It's embarrassing to admit but better under this scenario than a more serious one. Given this and what we are seeing in Ukraine it's clear the value of drones on the battlefield is real and hard to counter. Likely we will be seeing the deployment of anti-drone....drones in the next few years. Launching helicopters, fighter jets, & missiles is just not cost-effective when it's against a drone that probably cost $10k or less.

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dkf295 t1_j1v8kgl wrote

The big challenge with fielding drones to defend against drone attacks, is the limited warning you get considering the tiny radar cross section of a drone. You need a much faster "interceptor" drone to be able to catch up with the drone you're trying to target which will also necessarily cost substantially more than for example a Shahed-136 on account of needing to be faster, reusable, and having targeting systems and munitions besides quick and dirty onboard explosives.

What I think will be more likely is smaller, cheaper, and likely slower SAMs built to counter drones specifically. A Stinger may be 10 times the cost of a drone, but if you're taking down a drone you don't need nearly as much speed or ordinance (which also brings down the total unit size). Defense will always be behind Offense and will be more expensive, but think more like 3 times as expensive.

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ZiggyStardustEP t1_j1vakkj wrote

I love your response and it's well thought out. Thank you for it. Per the article:

“We have a plan to create a military drone unit tasked with monitoring key military facilities in North Korea. But we’ll advance the establishment of the drone unit as soon as possible because of yesterday’s incident,” President Yoon Suk Yeol said during a regular Cabinet Council meeting. “We’ll also introduce state-of-the art stealth drones and bolster our surveillance capability.”

Right now it appears the mentality is for anti-drone drones (there's gotta be a better word lol). Dont know if thats the correct route. I'd argue with continuing miniaturization of semiconductors you can focus on more advanced radar and detection capacity. My concern with fixed defense assets is they are sitting targets and once they are knocked out its not an easy fix. With drones your line of defense is now variable vs fixed. Some info I've seen on Gen 6 fighters is a hybrid system of manned aircraft that link with supporting drones. We may see something similar on defensive positions. A central hub connected to a network of drones that act in concert with each other for screening and response. How do you rapidly coordinate a kill chain from detection to coordinated attack/response? However, this is all pure speculation on my part. I could see a differentiation of disposable drones vs studier built reusable drones. Different design philosophies and implementation in the battle space/area you want to protect.

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dkf295 t1_j1vc0kl wrote

While it's not 100% clear, I read the above as connecting "state-of-the art stealth drones" as being connected to "bolster our surveillance capability.”, especially considering the previous statement regarding monitoring facilities (presumably used to launch drones). That being, that the drone development is for surveillance, not for interception of drones. Later in the article it also states:

"Kang said South Korea will establish drone units with various capacities and aggressively deploy military assets to shoot down enemy drones."

While military assets can definitely INCLUDE drones, I'm not really seeing anything in the article stating that the focus is on developing drones to shoot down drones.

>My concern with fixed defense assets is they are sitting targets and once they are knocked out its not an easy fix.

I was speaking more towards man-portable systems such as the Stinger. Quick, dirty, easy to deploy, generally not super obvious to spot like various larger batteries with dedicated launchers, radar, and control vehicles.

Overall as you touched on a bit, there's definitely use cases for air to air drones but at a certain point, you have to start asking yourself what is a drone and what is a missile, and whether you're better off developing large drones with long range and high speed that can keep up with your 6th gen fighter, that have their own munitions to counter drones. Or just creating smaller drone-specific munitions for the existing fighter.

Then again I'm just some rando on Reddit and hardly an expert.

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ZiggyStardustEP t1_j1velfm wrote

You're 100% good and appreciate the thought process. Better we think these things through before spending billions on research that is a dead end. I lean more towards bleeding edge technology that gives you a decisive advantage because I don't believe in fair fights lol. Man portable systems will definitely have their place. I'm sure military analysts are getting plenty of data from Ukraine on best practices, tactics & techniques. I like the idea of a system where we don't have to put everything on a solider responding in a fast acting situation like that.

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KanraIzaya t1_j1w4vpl wrote

Modern radars pick drones like that up with ease. The rcs may not be as big as a 747 but exposed propellers stand out like light beacons. Even a man portable radar can probably pick up a Shahed from 40km away, let alone something more sizable.

The cost of anti air munitions is indeed a problem though. Unless you have air superiority but yea...

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Airf0rce t1_j1wkf5b wrote

It's more likely we'll see more laser based anti drone systems, more sophisticated EW and more ubiquitous smart AA guns with aided targeting than missiles, since those will probably always be more expensive that the simple drones they're trying to shoot down.

Secondly you need a proper integrated defense network, that can detect targets as quickly as possible and prioritize them between different types of interceptors, you don't want to be shooting patriot missiles at Shaheds, but you might want to do just that for enemy aircraft / ballistic missiles. All of this is extremely expensive and difficult to build.

In Ukraine biggest problem with handling the missile/drone attacks is that they come in waves that generally overwhelm air defense, and even then most of the damage is not done by drones/Shaheds but large cruise/ballistic missiles, which are often even harder to shoot down.

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Xaxxon t1_j1x4q7z wrote

Where do you think the cost of a stinger missile goes to? I’m not sure smaller is cheaper. I mean sometimes smaller is more expensive.

I doubt the cost is significantly around the size of the warhead or amount of propellant.

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TheHunterZolomon t1_j1y9rcx wrote

I think this is where laser defenses will come in handy. Cheaper to fire, quicker to re-target, capable of destroying smaller objects, etc.

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Corregidor t1_j1x2cnd wrote

It won't be anti drone drones, it'll more than likely be large area denial systems like electronic disruption systems. It would be too costly and ineffective to have drones hunting each other.

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ZiggyStardustEP t1_j1x3c2j wrote

Fair and valid. A lot of people have posted different and interesting ideas. I'd imagine more durable drones that act like flying screening device that synchs to other drones or weapons. But we'll see how the application develops. I've even heard of ideas of tanks being equipped for drones to help with urban combat in conjunction with ground infantry.

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gradinaruvasile t1_j1yovml wrote

Drones can be made autonomous so anything short of EMP might not affect them. In case of surveiilance drones it might prevent reliable realtime data streaming though i suppose. But preprogrammed suicide drones are another matter.

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Test19s t1_j1vcs12 wrote

The 2020s: The (first?) Transformers-movie decade.

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way2gimpy t1_j1vqgzh wrote

I think something similar to the phalanx close in weapon system would be sufficient.

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RonMaple t1_j1xlqj4 wrote

Stuff like Gepard seems to work just fine? I guess it's just the cost of actually mass producing something like that again.

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