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webs2slow4me t1_j6dkdsy wrote

Reply to comment by 100percentwhey in Amid Worries Over Russian Forces In Belarus, Former Security Officer Says Belarusian Conscripts Won't Fight by -Fuck-You-Charles-

The problem is the country current has a ton of Russian military in it. They might be able to prop up the regime, but it would at least be a distraction for Putin.

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Core2score t1_j6durp1 wrote

I suspect it would be more than just a distraction for him seeing how he needs all hands on deck in Ukraine, but even just a distraction would be disastrous for Putin. The only reason he might want Belarus fighting with him is to keep some Ukrainian forces tied up and away from the main theater in donbas.. I mean even Putin isn't stupid enough to think Belarus could hope to occupy Kyiv.

So if it backfires, and he ends up being the one needing to divert troops to quell a popular uprising in Belarus he would've found yet another way to screw himself.

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ArthurBonesly t1_j6ed1uv wrote

It would be an incredibly expensive distraction that Russia can't afford right now. Not to mention Poland and the Baltics (independent of NATO) would proudly fund a resistance movement just to piss off Russia while having the international plausible deniability to say "what you gonna do about it?" Every step of the way.

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agwaragh t1_j6g6vtr wrote

They have some staging areas but they don't control any territory or supply routes. If push came to shove, they'd be easy pickings for the locals.

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