0x11C3P

0x11C3P t1_j25e86c wrote

PMI is going to be bad. Construction is going to be negative. Bill auctions will have no impact on equity markets.

Mortgage rates don't matter much as long as you're keeping a tally yourself so you can try and understand Fed movements. It's more important to know MoM home sales and price. The Fed minutes you spoke of are minutes from the last meeting. The next FOMC rate decision will be the JAN/FEB meeting. With their latest signaling, it's probably going to be 25 bps until we hit 5/5.25%. Housing/services is sticky as fuck so it's going to take some time.

JOLTS data will be lower which will prop up markets because it's what the Fed is looking at and lower numbers means/hopes Fed can start their easing.

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All this means is that it's going to be choppy. That said, I've been saying that with the latest NKE/FDX earnings showed we're not quite at earnings compression as I had hoped. I see some upside here until we break into the 390/400 range.

Thinking once we hit somewhere in that range we'll start to see some prolonged downtrend and earnings revisions starting late January/early February as earnings start to come out in earnest.

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0x11C3P t1_j24pb1o wrote

Dwindling e-commerce. AWS no longer growing at growth valuation rate. Increased borrowing costs. Overcapacity. Looming recession. Fed rates not being cut till end of 2023/early 2024.

I made a model after their last disappointing earnings and with certain guesstimates, I came to somewhere 20% below from here.

I'm not saying it'll go straight down from here. There will be choppiness but I gather it'll hit somewhere near bottom around 20% as they try and finally cut some overhead.

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0x11C3P t1_j20akfd wrote

I mean... some of us overpaid for college and learned how to lose money there. Don't think I opened up investopedia since I was overpaying for college to try and make sense of things.

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0x11C3P t1_iycw98n wrote

I mean... since he's free to speak his mind during this Brookings speech, he's basically just going to stomp on any hope of below 5% terminal rate like I called last month.

He'll point to continued increase in GDP. Tight labor markets. Markets still hoping in the wrong direction. He might even hint that since GDP increased and looks like consumer spending increased for Q4, inflation is probably higher so 75 bps could still be possible. That things can slow after this DEC meeting since even housing is picking back up. No more midterms to worry about and politicians won't give a shit anymore and will just let the man do his job.

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0x11C3P t1_iujgjlc wrote

Go to r/investing.

You'll get better answers.

But right off the bat, I can tell that you don't understand that $350 dividend each month varies on ETF price. Stock price drops, you won't get $350/mo. Also, if price of that ETF drops in value, you lose more than just your dividends.

But if you plan on holding that forever, go for it. You'll get more detailed answers at r/investing than here I'm sure.

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