This stat is straight up incorrect.

This is completely regarded. Progressive is one of the best run companies on the planet. I dont think you fully understand the insurance business. This year they hit target profit while the rest of the industry failed to do so and they stashed extra cash into reserves to save up for a bad year. Oh, and interest rates going up helps to increase their return on capital. If you want to short a P&C insurance company, go short Travelers or Allstate.