I'll put it very simply: GPT-4 copies us. Therefore, it can become as intelligent as the sum of our intelligence and wisdom. There will be a point, within the next 10 years, where it will have consumed all books, all movies, the entire internet.
But because it's a language model, it's incapable of doing anything new with that knowledge. Basically what I'm saying is that yes, it will become the smartest thing on Earth within the next 10 years, but it won't be able to come up with entirely new things. So we won't see a crazy exponential increase in its intelligence. Rather, we'll see its intelligence plateau.
At some point, we will make an AI that can actually create new information with the information it has. Then we can speak of scary exponential growth and intelligence that is literally beyond our grasp. But not yet.
Bram06 t1_je13kvu wrote
Reply to Chat-GPT 4 is here, one theory of the Singularity is things will accelerate exponentially, are there any signs of this yet and what should we be watching? by Arowx
I'll put it very simply: GPT-4 copies us. Therefore, it can become as intelligent as the sum of our intelligence and wisdom. There will be a point, within the next 10 years, where it will have consumed all books, all movies, the entire internet.
But because it's a language model, it's incapable of doing anything new with that knowledge. Basically what I'm saying is that yes, it will become the smartest thing on Earth within the next 10 years, but it won't be able to come up with entirely new things. So we won't see a crazy exponential increase in its intelligence. Rather, we'll see its intelligence plateau.
At some point, we will make an AI that can actually create new information with the information it has. Then we can speak of scary exponential growth and intelligence that is literally beyond our grasp. But not yet.
Not yet.