There's a lot of guesswork here, but there is still a bit of 'math' we can do to work out the problem. Here's the equation: transit_time + launch_window * num_missions / will
transit_time is about 9 months.
launch_window is about 25 months, when the phases of Earth & Mars align for optimal transit. In space, every gram counts, so a mission to Mars outside these windows is highly unlikely. The 2022 launch window has passed, so the next opportunity is 2024.
num_missions is the number of Mars-transit missions required for the goal of the program. By comparison, for the Apollo program this number was ~11, each mission building on the lessons of the last. For a Mars return mission, num_missions is more like ~6. At the very least, we'd need 4 missions:
A probe sample return mission to prove martian launch and recovery capability.
A transit mission, taking a spacecraft on a round-trip to Mars, demostrating safe long-term manned deep space flight.
An unmanned heavy lander test, demostrating a repeatable method for putting cargo on the red planet, as well as ensuring the safety of the vehicle for future human passengers.
Manned return mission.
will is, in this equation, the hardest variable to quantify. For good reason; the trillions of dollars and millenia of man hours required to land on Mars represents an enormous quanity. Beyond the lofty pursuits of science and exploration, there is little on Mars to justify the monumentous cost. In the smoky backrooms of global leadership, there seams to be no appetite for such an adventure.
In pure speculation, though, here's the absolute madlad speedrun bare minimum. Suddenly, dank memes are discovered on Mars, Elon quits Twitter and the full force of the US government is dedicated to the Starship program. Welders are bussed to Texas, and every million dollar CNC on three continents to set to run raptor engine parts. In September 2024, after weeks of refueling, a ship makes its burn, and lone explorer rides to legend. With will = 1 and num_missions = 1, they touch down in 2025. Obviously not gonna happen, but it's nice to dream.
Realistically, num_missions ~= 6 and will ~= 0.15 so we're looking at around ~84 years. Don't be disheartened, though! On this adventure, each individual accomplishment is an awesome sight to behold. Each mission is a triumph for enlightement, for civilization, for science and exploration. Even before we put boots on the ground, Mars has a lot to teach us.
CrypticOctagon t1_ixgppr4 wrote
Reply to Realistically speaking When do you think we will land humans on Mars? by EnaGrimm
There's a lot of guesswork here, but there is still a bit of 'math' we can do to work out the problem. Here's the equation:
transit_time + launch_window * num_missions / willtransit_timeis about9 months.launch_windowis about25 months, when the phases of Earth & Mars align for optimal transit. In space, every gram counts, so a mission to Mars outside these windows is highly unlikely. The 2022 launch window has passed, so the next opportunity is 2024.num_missionsis the number of Mars-transit missions required for the goal of the program. By comparison, for the Apollo program this number was~11, each mission building on the lessons of the last. For a Mars return mission,num_missionsis more like~6. At the very least, we'd need 4 missions:willis, in this equation, the hardest variable to quantify. For good reason; the trillions of dollars and millenia of man hours required to land on Mars represents an enormous quanity. Beyond the lofty pursuits of science and exploration, there is little on Mars to justify the monumentous cost. In the smoky backrooms of global leadership, there seams to be no appetite for such an adventure.In pure speculation, though, here's the absolute madlad speedrun bare minimum. Suddenly, dank memes are discovered on Mars, Elon quits Twitter and the full force of the US government is dedicated to the Starship program. Welders are bussed to Texas, and every million dollar CNC on three continents to set to run raptor engine parts. In September 2024, after weeks of refueling, a ship makes its burn, and lone explorer rides to legend. With
will = 1andnum_missions = 1, they touch down in2025. Obviously not gonna happen, but it's nice to dream.Realistically,
num_missions ~= 6andwill ~= 0.15so we're looking at around~84 years. Don't be disheartened, though! On this adventure, each individual accomplishment is an awesome sight to behold. Each mission is a triumph for enlightement, for civilization, for science and exploration. Even before we put boots on the ground, Mars has a lot to teach us.