ForgottenPercentage

ForgottenPercentage t1_je3sbu5 wrote

It is not as simple as solar flares. Not all solar flares produce CMEs. You need a solar flare that causes a coronal mass ejection (CME) which releases many particles to cause a good Aurora. Solar flares also come in varying magnitudes with M# and X# class flares being the strongest.

The CME needs be earth facing and preferably the interplanetary magnetic field is showing a negative Bz so that the interaction from the solar wind (CME) and earth's magnetic don't repel eachother.

Ofc you also want a cloudless night.

The sun is approaching solar maximum and is estimated to occur July 2025. This means increased sun activity, which means more sun's spots which means more flares and more chances for powerful earth facing CMEs. The sun goes through a solar minimum - maximum cycle on average every 11 years.

I use solarham.net and space weather to track sun activity for Auroral events.

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