The hard data will definitely tell us plebeians when the tides have turned. But by then, big money will already be on the other side of the trade.

I’ll keep focused on the data for long-term prospects, but I think Fed “tone” and market whim will dictate movements day to day and week to week for the rest of 2023. So as per usual, I’ll just be hoping to get lucky 🍀

I think scenario 1 is less likely to be a killshot, given what happened with MSFT after earnings.

Scenario 2 is an interesting prospect and is exactly what the inflation doomers have been shouting - that every previous period of inflation has had periods of cooling followed by even more rapid inflation. The gas prices might signal a resurgence here, but my personal experience (and the data) suggest that inflation in the price of goods is just about done.

My sense is that the probability of us experiencing extreme chop is the same as us experiencing aggressive flatness. Hence, I’m feeling a bit paralyzed here…

Ok, so how do I know when it’s time to buy puts?