The thing is. One way or another, selective genetic engineering and eugenics wars will be a thing in the future. If not on this planet, then in space or on the moon or beyond. If the civilization is to ever advance beyond the boundary of this planet, genetic engineering is inevitable.

Bro, your inability to differentiate what a company does vs what its stock does is comedy gold. Don't stop. I can't stop laughing.

Stock value and a company's execution are two separate things. Trying to claim they're the same thing is peak clown show.

The execution profile of Tesla is rock solid. But, suuuuure, it's all tumbling down according to you.

Elon's "Twitter" bullshit had a microcosmic impact on Tesla's sales.

> Tesla has no plans to slash prices until their market share started dropping.

There is zero logical sense to give up margin in business when you don't need to. Especially when you dominate in the market at scale, and your top "competitor", Ford produced 1/30th the amount of EVs you made for the fiscal year.

> If the federal tax credit mattered at all they would have only selectively cut prices, instead of across the board like they have.

No, they cut prices across the board because they didn't want to play bullshit games with the IRS with random qualifications on how to get access to the tax credit. When NTSB and NHTSA both qualified the 5-seater Model Y as an SUV, but the IRS didn't and then qualified the 7-seater as one, Tesla opted to summarily slash costs at the loss of around 10% margin so that all their models would qualify for the $7500 tax credit. In addition to this, when this was done, their Model Y inventory stock pile overnight disappeared.

The data on this doesn't lie, no matter what creative gymnastics you're trying to posit on the failure of the brand. Further, Elon's "Twitter bullshit" is limited to places like here and Twitter.

The market largely does not give a fuck about Elon or who he is. This is especially true with the latest Superbowl again. When, Tesla had not a single commercial they made for it and all the other players made EV announcements and subsequently Tesla orders and Google search interest spiked.

NoA markets may be significant to some, but they don't qualify nor quantify the entire world market, and people outside of the US, largely dgaf what Elon does on Twitter. Finally, when you're about to drop 40-60k on a luxury brand, if you put a CEO shitposting on Twitter above the material value of the vehicle, it's utility, and long term impact to your day to day activities, you're insane.

Lol? What crashing evaluation? The market always pulls back during fears of a recession. Tale as old as time.

Let me know when AWS gets dethroned.

The real tell will be how the Cybertruck does against the F-150 lightning. If the former dethrones the latter in every category that can qualify for what it means to make a pickup truck, this argument is going to fall apart.

How are they going to be gobbled up by a real car company. I mean, what does that even mean "real car company"?

Are you implying that Tesla isn't a real car company? Lol?

Tesla has a disproportionate monopoly because the legacy market was dismissive and neglectful, believing that BEVs had no future and the cost of transition was too exorbitant relative to shareholder interests.

Tesla on multiple investor and earnings calls admitted that they banked on the legacies taking Tesla seriously with each new advancement that they made, and acting like woken dragons to drive Tesla out of the business.

Time and again, competition never came. But now, Tesla is basically the 747 on the runway about to open up full throttle on all 4 engines and all the legacies are at the gate looking through the window in fear as to what it means if that plane takes off.

The IRA's purpose is to bail these companies out, but similar to how AWS dominates the world, I expect that Tesla will own ~50-60% of the total market share out to 2040. First movers advantage is like dumping NOS into your car's tank. You're gonna pull some serious Gs, but if nobody takes you seriously, you'll pull so far ahead that even if you slip up, the probability that you won't pull first is unlikely.

Lastly, Tesla spend the last 10 years building out their supercharger network because they recognized the importance of that network to the entire BEV platform ecosystem. It's not that they have a monopoly here. It's just that, their superchargers are vastly more capable and reliable than any other.

https://youtu.be/K1RoJCT7v-Q

^ this dude and his gf went to four separate locations with Superchargers and v2 chargers. They were all broken. This is a market problem. Calling Tesla a monopoly over supercharging because their network isn't a price of garbage is a bad call imo.

It also bears mentioning that Sandy Munro and his company pointed out that the lightning was using over a mile of cabling to the point of ridiculous excess. Which made the vehicle way more expensive to manufacture. This question then came up during the most recent Ford investment call and Jim Farley himself was flabbergasted that his own company was doing this, and that he'd direct more actively to ensure this doesn't happen in the future.

I surmise that this reduction in cost with Ford is him taking that more active approach and asking wtf is going on to engineers and project managers that they're wasting that much capital on their trucks. Tesla I believe currenty uses around 150-200m of wiring and are trying to reduce that down to <100m. If Ford can simplify their wiring harnesses, figure out a super bottle or heat pump solution like Tesla, vastly reduce the wiring usage per truck, and move to Gigacasting rather than body on frame with their trucks. The COGS should drop considerably and their margins will improve.

All of these are growing pains. However, Farley has the right mindset and is beginning to understand how Elon leads at Tesla and has begun to emulate that mindset. It's not an easy task, but Farley has already gone on record that they won't catch Tesla, but they will fight with all their might to become 2nd place in the EV market.

Once their Blue Oval Gigafactory in Kentucky comes online and they can start scaling that out along with similar advancements as Tesla with the aforementioned changes above, I expect that their growth curve will explode with a strong probability of reaching the 500k run rate around 2025.

I'm hopeful for Ford under Farley's changes and willingness to be honest about his company's weaknesses and how to correct them. It also helps immensely that Ford managed to capture one of Tesla's Supercharger Network VPs a while back to help establish the entire energy and charging infra ecosystem for the company; from sourcing batteries and setting up the material science division to handle battery chemistry to eventually what might lead to the development of a brand specific supercharger network just for their F-150 and like BEV products.

Uh, no. Tesla priced down significantly because the IRS started playing musical chairs with qualification for the IRA tax credit across various models. Tesla just summarily slashed prices so just about every model qualified for the credit. In doing so, it forced the rest of the industry to squander all of their margins heavily in order to stay competitive with Tesla's pricing power.

Tesla sells every single car it makes, and since it doesn't use the dealership model, there's no fuzziness between cars made and sold to dealers vs cars sold by dealers to customers. Further, Tesla's demand is considerable despite the significant increases in price.

However, it can be agreed, based on words made by Elon and Zach Kirkhorn that their vehicle prices have been on the higher side for too long and that's been painful to the larger market capture potential.

What was your prompt if you don't mind sharing?

Regulations get in the way more than money. DoE's regulations on anything nuclear sometimes borders on insane.

Tough call. They don't develop object permanence for several years. I think you need that in order to qualify as someone being stupid. If their brains can't remember that because their eyes can't see it doesn't mean it isn't there, then it's impossible to claim they're stupid. In fact, claiming that they're stupid is on of itself stupid. You neeny.

If the AI is unaware of the race of the client, doesn't that mean it's actually impartial? Because it's simply treating the being as a client/human and not introducing any bias?

Nice demon lord castle bro

Space is so massive that if you were to take the orbital diameter of Earth/Moon and deconstruct all the resources within, and turn into a mini Dyson sphere with an internal atmosphere, the internal surface area of this shell, would be large enough to support 100 trillion trillion people each with space equivalent of a small farm and still have enough space left to question "what do we do with the rest?“

By the same token, surface area of Earth's orbital plane is so huge, that the probability of a satellite collision is crazy low. It only goes up when you have state actors firing ASATs at existing hardware and creating hyper velocity debris fields.

They're aiming for 100 F9 launches for 2023. That will keep ramping until Starship onlines.

Twitter feeds are curated to your interests. It's quite a reach to claim this given that the behavior of the platform has largely stayed consistent.

300M quarterly is government subsidies across an average quarterly revenue of $3Bn. So about 10%. That drops to 6.7% when averaged across the entire year. This number over the last 2-3 years has been progressively declining.

The irony of the government subsidies is that basically Tesla has excess EV credits, because they don't have any ICE vehicles, being an EV company, under present wording of the subsidy law. Meanwhile, Ford, GM, etc. All didn't make enough EVs YoY to meet that subsidy.

So what happened? Ford and GM bought the EV credits from Tesla for cash. Those credits were turned in and Ford/GM got some added tax breaks or assistance in sales of their products for investing accordingly.

Fun fact: this cash Tesla got from GM and other legacy automakers via EV credits sales ended up paying for Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. Yeah, that's right. Tesla build their two newest factories across two continents based off of cash from selling EV credits they got automatically from being enrolled in the program to their competitors who didn't make enough EVs to qualify.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32346670/other-automakers-paid-tesla-record-354-million/

> but last summer, it was revealed that GM and FCA had agreed to buy credits from Tesla.

...

> UPDATE 7/22/2020: Tesla reported that it had earned $428 million in regulatory credits during the second quarter of this year, besting the $354 million posted last quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/tesla-electric-vehicle-regulatory-credits-explained.html

> In a push to reduce carbon emissions, governments around the world have introduced incentives for automakers to develop electric vehicles or very low-carbon emitting cars. Credits are given to carmakers that build and sell environmentally friendly vehicles.

> In the U.S., California and at least 13 other states have rules surrounding regulatory credits. They require auto manufacturers to produce a certain number of so-called zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) based on the total number of cars sold in that particular state.

...

> These carmakers are required to have a certain amount of regulatory credits each year. If they can't meet the target, they can buy them from other companies that have excess credits.

> Because Tesla only sells electric cars which come under the ZEV category, the company always has excess regulatory credits and can effectively sell them at a 100% profit.

Emphasis mine.

> Last month, Reuters reported that a joint venture between German automaker Volkswagen and Chinese state-owned manufacturer FAW, agreed to buy credits from Tesla in China.

...

> Since Tesla receives all these regulatory credits for free, it can essentially sell them for a 100% profit. This has been behind its recent profitable quarters.

...

> One example is Stellantis, a company formed through the merger of France's PSA Group and Italy's Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. Stellantis bought about 2 billion euros ($2.43 billion) of European and U.S. green credits from Tesla between 2019 and 2021, according to Reuters.

Emphasis mine.

While it's true that these credits are going away as others are making EVs too, Tesla is uniquely advantaged because they don't have an albatross around their neck involving their legacy ICE business. Additionally, once Austin and Berlin fully ramp, they'll hit 2M vehicles a year and they're talking about announcing their next Gigafactory build location by year's end, which will either be Canada or South Korea.

Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota are all talking about hitting run rates of production of around 4-500k/year by 2025. Tesla will achieve 1.2M by the end of this year, 2M by end of next year, 2.5M by 2024, and 3M by 2025. Even with all of legacy auto firing on all cylinders, Tesla's manufacturing advantage puts them at around 1M+ year delivery excess of its competitors.

And all of this before you consider the IRA act and all the free cash Tesla is going to get based on everything it already does:

• In house battery = cash
• V2G if enabled = cash
• Supercharger/Megacharger Network = cash
• Megapacks & Powerwalls = cash
• Solar roofs = cash

And that for the next 10 years. There's a reason why GM announced that it's going to get into battery storage business. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/gm-energy-launches-to-connect-homes-businesses-with-ev-chargers-energy-storage.html

They did the math and realized how much $$$ the gov is going to give out via IRA for the next 10 years to Tesla (by the virtue of simply existing) because they're already in this space and already have sold close to 20GW of capacity that they can capitalize on, and GM wants some of it going forward too.

Tesla doesn't need the government subsidies. It gets them at 100% profit, because these subsidies exist for Tesla's competitors so that they can catch up to Tesla. But, you can't discriminate subsidy grants, so it gets them all the same. And that free capital is applied to further expansion.

Which. Further. Widens. The. Moat.

280 chars does make /99 threads kinda obnoxious.

We're getting closer and closer to A Scanner Darkly tech.

Honestly, most wars won't be fought with guns the way sci-fi portrays them. All you need is the ability to launch a missile that will shrapnel detonate directionally towards the enemy base from outside the range of AA and you win. Physics will basically do the rest and AA will get overloaded when there's hundreds of thousands of debris coming towards the base at puncture velocity. You basically need to compromise pressure in 1 or 2 difficult to patch locations and you win.

No need for bullets. Remember that objects in motion stay in motion unless acted upon by an outside force. Wars will basically end in a day early on, until habs are massively reinforced in a meter of rock, concrete and metal or all of the above.

Would be great to talk to my cat. I have rough understanding most of the time. But around dinner time and after dinner time, I don't know if she's saying feed me more or let's play with lasers.

We'll have a colony on Mars before we unlock fusion. Haha