KutteKiZindagi

KutteKiZindagi t1_jeezk9r wrote

Not exactly. And this is why the bond holders are suing.

Bong holders are always paid before stock holders. And this tier was supposed to sit between bonds and stocks. Higher risk than bonds but higher yields than bonds and lower risk than stocks.

Technically stocks would have to be wiped first. Then tier 1 bonds and if any money is left of the bankruptcy proceeding it may go to bond holders or sometimes in restructured organization bond holders get shares of the new company.

Tier 1 bonds only lose out IF everyone in stocks lose out and there is no money even after that.

This is the hierarchy. However it was violated. Thats why EU and US insisted that this was wrong and are distancing themselves from it. https://www.srb.europa.eu/en/content/eu-regulators-distance-themselves-credit-suisse-bond-writedowns

Why? most likely some powerful stock holders. Not sure.

4

KutteKiZindagi t1_je0avvn wrote

On the spot price. Lets assume you want to move some shit from china to US today. You get the quoted price and you pay to move it.

Long term contracts are for regular shippers to ship in future.

The shipping price is in "contango" which means the long term contract price is higher than current price. Which means the market expects the shipping price to rise in the future.

2

KutteKiZindagi t1_j9cj6fa wrote

>There are only two reasons that come to my mind why stock market ain't reacting.

you keep forgetting that the market is crushing retail. Fed said this was literally the #1 goal to suck out liquidity and quickly end inflation. To rephrase fed governor "there is not enough pain on the stock market to reduce inflation"

Stock market is rallying because 90% of WSB/retail, their grandma and their dogs is on shorts. Markets will rally days, weeks, months, years until all the shorts are killed. Absolutely positively.

Long dated puts wont cut it. The market could rally years. The 2008 crash started in 2003. Retail were majorly in puts in 2004/2005. Burry got in at 2005. Markets rallied for 3 years after that.

4

KutteKiZindagi t1_j9cbued wrote

> By the time the real crash happens in May

in the 2008 crash the real dominoes started falling around 2003. It took 5 years for the market to crash. Burry bought the swaps in 2005.

So maybe May or maybe 2028. No one knows. The market has to crush all the retail puts first.

20

KutteKiZindagi t1_j99kexu wrote

> technical perspective

technical analysis is astrology for dumb investors. at best, it's a red herring used by large funds to create bag holders.

I am not saying you are wrong or right and FWIW you could be right. But it's not because of TA

1