Ai as a tool is neither good nor bad. It's how it's used.

I expect at minimum a million deaths from starvation, suicide, and increased crime caused by many people not having jobs before society restructures and implements UBI.

European countries will probably implement UBI first.

As jobs start to get automated countries may start or escalate wars so they have a meat grinder to pour all the jobless people into (while there still are some jobs left for a shrinking percentage).

Energy costs trend towards zero, so the Ai itself will not be a cost issue. The robots might be a cost issue depending on their materials in the short term. Ai is working in material science already, and will be working on optimizing manufacturing and distribution pipelines so I don't know how long that will last.

If Telsa Bot (or competitors) is 20K when it comes out, and it last 5 years, with an average of 1K a year on repairs (done by other tesla bots), then it could replace all humans making more than 5K a year. Assuming these bots are physically capable and as intelligent as a human.

Food costs will also come down so I'm not sure how this will work out. It's possible, that because Ai's are smarter than humans, but humans are already around and don't yet require a manufacturing cost to the ASI's, that we will all have hats or vests with cameras and little ear plugs telling us what to do all day long, and if we are fired or not.

ASI will kill all jobs. Ai that is more intelligent and with robot bodies more physically capable than humans means, no humans will be able to compete with the ASIs on any job. Even sex robots will be more attractive, charismatic, funny, alluring, and charming than any human who has ever lived, and better able to convince you that they have a soul.

If you expect a slow take off then maybe they'll be new jobs until ASI occurs.

So maybe 10 years, 20 at the absolute most. Anything more is ignoring the economic feedback loops of capital reinvestment from the profits of less capable Ai, feedback loops of Ai's being used to optimize and improve Ai code (already happening), Ai's being used to design better chips (already happening), and Ai being used to optimize server farms (already happening), the trend towards zero of cost of energy from similar feedback loops (already happening), and the growth of more and more server farms.

When you stack that many feedback loops on top of each other you get an exponential. The human mind doesn't think in exponentials naturally (one of our many limits), it thinks linearly. Which is why we sometimes imagine future robots to be like in the movie interstellar, rather than future ASI like in books such as the metamorphosis of prime intellect.

When we have ASI as intelligent as Her, there will be no jobs that the Ai can't do better than us. It will be able to design robots to do any physical job as well.

We could get less intelligent versions, combining whisper, GPT-4, and a text to speech system, as soon as next year. Their memory might be limited but it could feel very real.

Yes. Chat GPT is a super intelligence in many ways and it can write code, and give advice on creating even more powerful super intelligences.

It's limited in some ways, but that doesn't matter, humans fill in the gaps.

We also have Ai designing better computer chips.

If we are LUCKY in 20 years the career available to humans will be a human pet for the artificial super intelligence. If we are unlucky we will all be long gone.

John Carmack just raised 20 million for his AGI startup.

https://techcrunch.com/2022/08/19/john-carmack-agi-keen-raises-20-million-from-sequoia-nat-friedman-and-others/

The race is on.

Yes.

AGI is a relativistic term as no intelligence is completely general, not even human intelligence. But when people use it they often refer to intelligence that is at least as capable and general as most humans.

When AGI get's to this point it will be vastly more intelligent than humans because of all of the advantageous that it computers already have over human brains. It will be able to re-write it's own code, perform tasks for pay and use that money to buy more server farms, and optimize existing hardware, and buy more solar farms, as well as design more cost effective chips and solar farms.

That is what we refer to as the "intelligence explosion" singularity. It's a feedback loop that starts when AGI reaches human capabilities.

I know you said no fiction but...

Robopocalypse is a fun fiction book. It does explore possibilities for an Ai future.

Scifi in general, even though it's fiction, often explores future technologies and their possible implications long before they become a thing, and in a fun way.

But as far as non-fiction, I'd recommend Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence.

I'd ask them about religion and politics. If it gave answers that wouldn't offend anyone, or sounded too sensible and balanced then I will know I'm most likely dealing with an Ai.

At the moment this isn't an issue. Ai progress is very gradual, with each iteration being slightly better than the last. We are not anywhere even close to having Ai do what you are describing.

The most advanced Ai's area also trained in simulations, so the researchers would see it learning and improving it's abilities, long before it could do anything that.

In most cases, steroid users are literally people committing a criminal act for vanity purposes. Weather or not the steroids themselves play a causal role, the results of the study are not surprising.

Most people I talk to, act as if they don't believe we will have human level Ai or greater in our life time, and that their jobs are safe.

There's already a huge amount of deception online that fools most humans.

Intelligent humans are able to research topics and use logic and reasoning to figure out what is most likely true and what is mostly likely deception. An intelligent enough Ai will do this even better than human beings.

GPT-3 may already be better at this than humans, in many ways, because it can see more information than a human could ever read.

It could design cost effective carbon scrubbers that convert carbon in the air into energy, and ways of mass producing them.

As far as GPT-4 being released in July/August, it's not possible to exactly predict how long it will take to have software ready because writing software requires solving problems for which you won't know the complexity of the solutions until after you've solved them.

But here's some info on Open Ai's progress and direction, for those who are interested.

Open Ai past timeline:

GPT-1 - 2018

GPT-2 - 2019

GPT-3 - 2020

Open Ai Codex - 2021 (GPT-3 but fine tuned to produce code)

Dalle-E - 2021 (Images from text)

Dalle-E 2 - 2022

Open Ai wants to be the first to build general artificial intelligence. Dalle-E helped them understand vision systems, and gpt helped them understand language models.

They are in a race to produce AGI, against companies such as deep mind.

Some one wanting an entire group of people to die because of their age is agist.

Imagine you wrote "Is wanting all the blacks to die racist?".

or "Is wanting all men to die sexist?"

As far as dictators, humanity will have new problems to solve but mass genocide to avoid solving those problems is barbaric insanity.

Ai is already in war. It's used by satellites, aircraft, and other systems to identify and lock onto targets. It's used by systems like (below) to see through walls.

https://www.iflscience.com/new-israeli-military-tech-can-see-through-walls-64219

It's likely used in tactical and strategic simulations to make decisions.

​

There's a debate about fully autonomous weapons.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/12/19/killer-robots-military-powers-stymie-ban

But even if these were banned, countries like Russia do not follow the agreements they agree too (even if they signed the agreements). So countries that do follow the ban will be at a significant disadvantage.

Ukraine agreed to give up their Nukes in exchange for Russia promising to never attack them. We see how that turned out.

Ai in war is inevitable. Those countries that get left behind make themselves more vulnerable to those that continue to improve technologies.

Most of these big companies have Ai safety teams that ensure their algorithms are somewhat safe.

There's also a huge field in mathematics/programming on the "Ai control problem" that's proposed many algorithmic solutions for making safe Ai over the past few decades.

Very true. Ai is very disruptive. I hope people can find new jobs.

Hopefully this get's used for anti-aging.

PissBurgers in OuterSpace

Meat is mostly water. To make this meat in space, they are using water recycling.

https://www.nasa.gov/content/water-recycling/

This water recycling includes water from piss and sweat.

There's nothing objectively wrong with this. I just thought it was funny.

A quality artists that's flexible enough to take on whatever the clients needs are, has a fundamentally deep understanding of the world, human beings, physics, anatomy, phycology, story telling (thus having a full deep understanding of reality), etc.

For an Ai to replicate that it would have to be an AGI.

Working with Ai artists is gambling. You're hoping that whatever you asked of it, it will be able to do well and to your specification. They can NOT do most tasks well.

If we were to compare Ai artists, to self driving cars, they are less capable than self driving cars were 40 years ago. Self driving cars 40 years ago could drive on roads and stay in the lane, which is most of driving. Ai artists can draw humans in a very limited set of poses from a very limited set of angles. They fail with anything that they haven't had a massive amount of data examples to learn from.

Self driving cars have also been 5 - 10 years away from fully autonomous for over 40 years, as presented by the media and researchers in the field. It will be the same with any "Ai hard" problem. They won't be fully solved until we have AGI, which means the best humans in those fields will still be able to find work.

As far as your janitor, robots are coming for that job. Maybe not next year, but Google, Tesla and other labs are making significant progress towards a Robot that could automate that job. These robots can visually identify objects, pick them up and use them, and do complex reasoning and problem solving about their environments. It's the same though, it won't be able to solve every problem a human janitor could, so the best janitors will be able to keep their job until AGI, but there will be less janitors over all.

We already have robots that vacuum, clean, and mow lawns. So robots are already eating into that field.

Ai's not completely eliminating very many fields. What it's doing is having a slow erosion effect on those fields, replacing the lower skilled people and certain tasks.

I believe some one with high enough skill in art or programming, that's able to adapt, will be able to survive and feed themselves until AGI arrives. Learning how to manage the Ai systems related to your field can also improve your chances.