Yea exactly, iv was lower two weeks ago so that’s when the play would have been good

Show us on the doll where Abnb touched you

May the tendie gods be with you then. I think you have a pretty decent shot of being correct. I think the estimates are particularly optimistic though it’s not based on rubbish with travel stocks going up and 3q being their best quarter typically.

Though with the loftier expectations, a fall will be more dramatic so it can play into the put option. Max pain for Friday is 115 and put call ratio is near parity with a leading edge to the bulls. One would think, based on what you are saying, that there would be disparity towards the call side of the option chain.

Harder to book because of high demand or less units?

I wonder what their user growth (or decline) is looking like. I think this will be a huge indicator for price movement.

I agree it’s risky however their earnings estimates are ~1.45 which is significantly higher than the previous 3 quarters so it will be hard to hit. Even a slight miss with bad forwards will be devastating to the price.

I have Jan 23 2p right now which is highly ambitious however will print if true

Well the only substantive counterpoint someone has put forward so far is that October is typically their best earnings coming off of the summer month. Which I have already taken into account. It may be enough to maintain or elevate the current market sentiment. However overall I think there are currently more things working against that overall sentiment then for it. Obviously it’s a getting game however I don’t think anyone has provided any points that renders the theory meritless

Edit: EPS estimates also look particularly high this quarter

To be completely honest with you, the fact that everyone here is a little bit iffy on the play absolutely fuels my confirmation bias

So if I fuck up I should double down next quarter?

So if they do in fact miss, it could be catastrophic. I think even if they do it expectations, their forward guidance will be what drive them down.

Or I am just a gullible prick.

That’s actually the one thing I forgot to include - my fear that I’m about 1 quarter too early for this thesis

Earnings is tomorrow my guy

Wtf is this, r/investing?