TheCandyManisHere
TheCandyManisHere t1_ivg8798 wrote
Reply to comment by I_Kauser_I in Humanoid robots could generate $154 billion in revenue over next 15 years, Goldman Sachs reports by Gari_305
Sincerely appreciate the response. Your conclusion raises some interesting points. I hadn't thought of that...an interesting proposal but I'm not sure it would actually create more value at this point.
Specific responses to your response below:
> Affordable EV commuter vehicles
This definitely hasn't moved as fast as anyone would have liked. But year-over-year vehicle ASP (average sales price) has decreased significantly year over year. Keep in mind that building a manufacturing juggernaut that an auto manufacturer has to be to scale down costs to build affordable cars is extremely difficult and takes an incredibly long time...especially with COVID supply chain issues. Case-in-point, all vehicle prices have gone up over the past two years...and let's not forget that before Tesla came on the scene, there were virtually no EVs.
Now that Tesla arrived and took the market by storm, you're seeing a lot of great low-cost options from other companies. Not saying that Tesla should take the credit of other companies' hard work but it should be recognized that often times costs come down when competition gets spurred by the OG. Same thing happened in the smartphone market with Apple.
Also, how long did other auto companies take to get to mass manufacturing cheap vehicles with relatively new tech? Guarantee it has been more than 20 years (approx. the same time length that Tesla has been manufacturing cars).
> Affordable EV tractors
Do you mean EV semis? Tesla has never mentioned tractors lol. First batch of EV semis will be delivered to PepsiCo in December.
> Mainstream solar
Tesla, at least in California, by far offers the cheapest rooftop solar installation service at ~$2.25 per watt before incentives. I'd be willing to bet this is the case across the US. Their customer service needs (a lot of) improvement though...
> Neuralink
Not associated with Tesla. But they did just get started.
> Mars mission
Same here.
> Commercialized robotics
This program is...what...1 year old? Pretty impressive how far they've come.
Back to Master plan part 1 and 2 that has been delivered on: Build sports car, build high-end consumer car and scale, build high-end SUV and scale, build premium mass market car and scale, build premium SUV mass market car and scale, scale rooftop solar.
Next up is cybertruck and Semi. If you've been truly following what they're doing you'll know that cybertruck is in production in '23. Super delayed for sure, but still headed towards production. Semi is being delivered in a few weeks.
As for the return to shareholders, given the stock's meteoric rise, I'm not sure what Musk needs to do. Do we know how many "bagholders" there are vs. % of those who held the stock before its rise in 2020?
The only project you listed that's actually considered a side project and not part of Tesla's core mission is the humanoid robots. The rest are considered Musk's separate startups. And if he's right on robots, then it makes sense to leverage Tesla's burgeoning AI chops to build out that technology and commercialize it as this article suggests.
TheCandyManisHere t1_ivg1flj wrote
Reply to comment by I_Kauser_I in Humanoid robots could generate $154 billion in revenue over next 15 years, Goldman Sachs reports by Gari_305
Damn good point backed up with quality evidence. Never thought about it that way.
TheCandyManisHere t1_ivft0tx wrote
Reply to comment by I_Kauser_I in Humanoid robots could generate $154 billion in revenue over next 15 years, Goldman Sachs reports by Gari_305
I mean…he is woefully late and too optimistic about execution more often than not but “no follow through”?
Master plan part 1 is done.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
Master plan part 2 is halfway there (autonomy still has a looong way to go despite what Musk says):
TheCandyManisHere t1_ixpcsda wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Renault's heavy electric trucks are now available to order by darth_nadoma
? This just means Renault is taking reservations. Tesla Semi has been taking reservations for some time now and will start delivering on Dec. 1. Sounds like Renault still has a ways to go.
Regardless, market is so new that it can support multiple entrants. Demand is way too high for one or two suppliers currently…so it’s a good thing that Tesla, Renault, and others are all racing to fill that demand.