VerticalRadius

VerticalRadius t1_iy1nktx wrote

There's definitely going to be delayed effects but I'm in ag and I've seen feed go up around 30% and fertilizer around 40% just in the last year or so. I haven't seen 2-3x in the last year personally, but it's still scary to see these inputs go up so much and it doesn't always correlate 1:1 for food price increase - it could be worse/higher. Because when you have to pay 30% more to feed your chickens you're going to decide to have less chickens. Means for example less eggs in the market which are already priced at least 30% higher and it'll probly go higher with the reduced supply.

In the case of crops less fertilizer will be used to cut cost which hurts yield and may even cause the crop to be lost altogether depending on the farming method. I'm not in high volume industrial ag but seems they will suffer the most plus there's increased fuel inputs for the machinery and processing.

Tl;Dr - prices will increase but it's probably more like 40% not 200-300%... For now.

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