Doesn't matter. They're selling AI chips now. LOL

I'm not going to be one of the guys on here who says CPI is meaningless because it's not but Core PCE inflation is what the Fed looks at a lot more and it has been much stickier and will be a lot harder to get back to 2%.

Not happening. The Fed is fucking pissed because the market no longer believes them and ignores their projections. The Fed isnt cutting until 2024 because they don't want to repeat the 70s Fed mistakes and allow inflation to come roaring back. They won't cut unless there is a massive recession or we hit their target inflation rate of 2%.

The article by Nick Timiraos from 10/21 saying they were debating the size of future hikes.

I'm nervous too but I think the recent rally has boxed him in. If he comes out with a dovish speech the market is going to blow its roof off and that isn't what he wants. I think that WSJ article last Friday was a test to see what would happen if they telegraphed any type of step back and the market failed.

It'll depend on his speech afterwards. It went up in July because people took his comments as telegraphing a pivot. If its a hawkish speech like Jackson Hole it'll drop like a rock.

Check the cboe put/call ratio index. The puts have been fucked. Now comes the drop.

If that were true this would be a national issue. But it's not, it's a global issue. Is Biden causing inflation in Europe? Australia? The United Kingdom? Turkey? South America? Japan? This is about a half dozen global issues converging at once.

No offense, but there is no way this rally is dependent on a "red wave" with a Democrat in the White House. It's not like they are going to pick up a veto proof majority in the Senate. If anything, good chance Republicans start threatening the debt ceiling as soon as they win. That tanks the market in a stable economy. Can't even imagine what that would do here.

If the GOP wins congress they'll probably start threatening the debt ceiling as well. That's always good for a significant market drop in a normal economy. God only knows what kind of effect that'll have in this one.

Today's market move has just got to be algorithms. There is no way the earnings this week with the previous Fed statements warrant a +2% move in the S&P and Nasdaq. If it continues until the FOMC announcement next week they may jump to a 100 and telegraph another 100 in December.

But how much better are they actually looking? This is from a Reuter's article, "U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday after data showed underlying inflation pressures remain elevated and suggested the Federal Reserve will keep its aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 6.2% in the 12 months through September to match the prior month's rise. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, advanced 5.1% annually after increasing 4.9% in August."

If the Fed signals a pivot next week there is going to be a blow the roof off rally which will completely undercut what they are trying to do. I'm starting to believe anything is possible but if that's what they do then they truly are completely incompetent and Biden should fire Powell's ass right after the mid-terms.