Men Scissor kicking is the new PH trend

That’s under the assumption that you are spending $0 in P&A which is insane for the movie industry. Way of Water is estimated to cost around $400 with P&A. $250mm budget $150mm P&A. Also you are talking about a movie where a lot of the budget was spent prior to the crazy inflation and interest rates we’ve seen recently. All the movies you mentioned are sequels though so proof of concept has been established and generally sequels are more expensive. So with inflation adjusted and some P&A, you could see $1B make

Either -Titanic and Avatar (Amazon would be pumped for this outcome)

Or - John Carter and Waterworld (Amazon would be less happy)

Realistically you might get, a few decent movies, but a billion isn’t really that much all things considered. Especially when Amazon Prime is generally viewed as the streaming platform with some of the worst content.

Edit: P&A stands for prints and advertising (usually 50% if a films budget)