There are a lot of possibilities, but most of them are unrealistic. The most important thing is that AI wouldn’t take all job, but it could take most. Physical capital will also remain an essential feature of any economy, AI driven or not.
In an ideal world workers would have ownership over the AI, or equipment that replaced them. They would be able to earn passive income over the productive function they serve in the economy, and the free time of those workers have would lead to both leisure and ingenuity. Mix in political power dynamics between corporations and people though, and you could just as easily turn this into an economic caste system. It is easy to imagine scenarios where the value of worker owned AI assets depreciates overtime.
The more likely situation is that it will be adopted by business owners. Instead of uplifting workers by granting them property rights or public goods, it will likely be weaponized by firms to maximize output while reducing the bargaining power of workers globally. This would lead to the same outcome as the depreciation of worker owned assets overtime, but without the benefit of any passive income.
The most likely social outcome in pretty much all cases is an increased demand for highly skilled labor in niche fields. Whether or not the public maintains access to this is a social question that depends on geopolitical conflicts, culture wars and local concentrations of wealth.
In the likely event that AI result in even further concentrated wealth, the relationship between government and corporate interests will be even more important than it is now. The government may act as an employer of last resort to compensate. Authoritarian Nationalistic countries will likely expand their active military enlistment for example. Militaristic democratic countries may even do the same, albeit differently. Automation taxes could be levied to maintain public goods. Otherwise, the government could allow them to be privatized and AI maintained.
It really depends on how we politically evolve to meet these challenges. The more hierarchal our society remains, the more concentrated the benefits of AI automation will be.
dediguise t1_j0qr0fi wrote
Reply to How would the economies be if AI takes most / all the jobs? by Charming-Coconut-234
There are a lot of possibilities, but most of them are unrealistic. The most important thing is that AI wouldn’t take all job, but it could take most. Physical capital will also remain an essential feature of any economy, AI driven or not.
In an ideal world workers would have ownership over the AI, or equipment that replaced them. They would be able to earn passive income over the productive function they serve in the economy, and the free time of those workers have would lead to both leisure and ingenuity. Mix in political power dynamics between corporations and people though, and you could just as easily turn this into an economic caste system. It is easy to imagine scenarios where the value of worker owned AI assets depreciates overtime.
The more likely situation is that it will be adopted by business owners. Instead of uplifting workers by granting them property rights or public goods, it will likely be weaponized by firms to maximize output while reducing the bargaining power of workers globally. This would lead to the same outcome as the depreciation of worker owned assets overtime, but without the benefit of any passive income.
The most likely social outcome in pretty much all cases is an increased demand for highly skilled labor in niche fields. Whether or not the public maintains access to this is a social question that depends on geopolitical conflicts, culture wars and local concentrations of wealth.
In the likely event that AI result in even further concentrated wealth, the relationship between government and corporate interests will be even more important than it is now. The government may act as an employer of last resort to compensate. Authoritarian Nationalistic countries will likely expand their active military enlistment for example. Militaristic democratic countries may even do the same, albeit differently. Automation taxes could be levied to maintain public goods. Otherwise, the government could allow them to be privatized and AI maintained.
It really depends on how we politically evolve to meet these challenges. The more hierarchal our society remains, the more concentrated the benefits of AI automation will be.