You might like something like this as you use azure: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/products/bot-services/

Oh I haven't tested this on textbooks, but I have asked chatGPT to give me pages of a novel and it did word for word. I suspect it had to have trained on PDFs? I'm highly surprised I haven't seen any news of authors/publishers suing yet tbh.

It is obvious when a book is a part of its training set or not though based on the above test.

They're just making up timelines. I know there are some models that if you just drag the line forward, approach human level ability in a very niche task by 2030. There's a lot of niche tasks out there though.

A lot of these timelines also assume moores law will keep up pace and it's slated to die when transistors have the thinness of atoms by 2025.

A CEO trying to sell their products says that their products are going to be even better in their future? They're trying to make Nvidia seem relevant and ease investor concerns with all the other big tech companies taking a hit recently.

That's true, but it was always known to not a be forever thing and it has slowed down. I think I remember the last big milestone where they said that was die size of 45nm or so because of quantum tunneling. Thing is, there is a physical limit to how small we can make transistors.

Once we're dealing with transistors that are as thin as atoms, where do we go from there? Yes quantum computing, optical transistors, graphene, etc, exist, but do they provide a higher performance per dollar than silicon transistors? Probably not and it's all about price per performance.

So says you too. Transformers are marginal in the grand scheme of technological progress. If transformers were even 10x more efficient than CNNs or LSTMs, transformers would still be an improvement that came orders of magnitude slower than Moores law. CNNs/LSTMs being decades old.

There's a reason why all articles regarding a singularity uses Moore law as it's base, it's been the largest contributor to our increase in technological advancement over the years. That contributor is ending.

Most of the models are based on the same core algorithms from decades ago. The biggest improvements has been from moores law which will end in 2025 at current rates. Even without moores law ending, we are far away from an agi.

That's also just for inference and fine tuning. Even more processing power is required for a full training of the model.

Of coding, that sounds typical. A lot of us don't feel like meetings and such, are productive or like work. Not to say I'm sometimes not "actively working" as well. I'd say we bring our work home in our heads longer than most though.

In any case, average office worker works less than 3hrs/day https://www.inc.com/melanie-curtin/in-an-8-hour-day-the-average-worker-is-productive-for-this-many-hours.html

Anecdotally, I'd say that this is true as well.

I remember in an economics class that focused on the history of capitalism, that was a main reason why we have any social safety nets at all. When the middle class loses what wealth they have seems to be when people start revolting.

Again, I don't agree with OPs premise though that this is what'll happen. Just that I could see why some might think this way.

Wanting people not to revolt at their respective locations. That being said I could see government regulations giving incentives based on how many people they employee with more and more automation coming.

I still find it somewhat unrealistic.

Also, as this is futurology and we see things studies/research that extend lifespans, the life extension could be something they price out of reach for non workers.

Tbh I am enjoying my ember mug more than I thought I would. I didn't even buy it myself, it was a gift.

The thing about it being consistent is why I like it. Without it, the drink is either going to be super hot or I forget about it while cooling down and it becomes cold.

What's wild is I got into an argument recently with someone who said collusion was fine as long as the company makes a profit. They couldn't understand why I would be against that and called me an anticapitalist as some big insult for being against collusion.

I can't understand why people would be so against antitrust regulations.

Yes, including in one of the 49 at will employment states.

As long as the company is of a certain size, fmla is a federal requirement. I think last time I checked McDonald's had more than 50 employees or whatever the small number is that requires fmla.

I mean, I'm pretty sure that's illegal to fire someone for missing work because they were hospitalized?

When did you, chatGPT, start posting on r/Futurology?