wait for real? that's crazy, i gotta go take a look now

I'm going into this decade fully expecting normal life to be fundamentally re-shaped. I'm not scared about this future because I've accepted that it's sort of inevitable, but also it's ultimately what's best for our species. I'm also not gonna prepare in any way, because really what can we do? Just need to embrace it once it happens.

repetitive desk jobs like accounting, admin, law, are probably in danger too

I had an argument with some people on Reddit recently and they all thought an AI that could do useful day-to-day tasks like browsing the internet was 50-100 years away. fkn lol

Some part of me thinks that's actually a good thing. Most people would want to stop AI progress just out of fear

Knowledge work as we know it is pretty much dead in 10 years imo.

Any job that requires dexterity and your hands is probably safe.

wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to 2025-2026 by the end of next year

what does a clerk do? How does GPT-3 replace them?

serious question, don't you think 90% of stocks will go to 0 the day AGI is announced, since it will basically mean that all those business models are obsolete?

I think the end game for our species is space exploration and BCIs. BCIs will also open up the door to mind uploading and full-dive VR.

my guess is 20s is still the largest

I think GPT-4 is going to be another huge leap. It will be so capable that some people are going to get genuinely scared that AI will replace jobs in just a matter of years. The engineering community will be high on hopium. Singularitarianism will boom. VC funding will boom. Most researchers will start accepting that AGI is the ultimate goal, and it's imminent. We'll start seeing more mainstream news coverage. It's gonna be wild.

oh just that thing called transformers

in 2016 you would never have predicted the rapid progress over the next 5 years from 2017-2022. Same thing now. You will be dumbfounded by what will be achieved from 2023-2028.

edit: changed the dates

DeepMind's goal is a bit more specific than that. They want to solve intelligence so they can use that intelligence to understand science. Demis Hassabis wants to answer all of the fundamental questions in physics, chem, bio, math, everything.

Isomorphic labs is a drug discovery startup that spun out of DeepMind. Hassabis has long hoped to build a virtual simulation of a cell, which would allow you to run infinite experiments on a cell. That would radically shorten the timecycles for disease discovery.

Isn't this the mission of DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs? Someone actually beat them to it I guess. Maybe we are all massively underestimating the impact AI will have on health/bio research.

I think the era of majoring in CS to get a fancy dev job in the valley is probably coming to an end. I think in the near future, CS will only be for people deeply interested in hardcore CS topics like algos, OS, comp theory, comp architecture, AI/ML, etc. Basically it will go back to what it was like in the 70s. Just real nerd shit like Electrical Eng or Physics. Basically, I think the "just learn to code" bubble is going to pop.

Coding itself will be looked at like blue-collar grunt work. Similar to what a typist was back in the early 1900s. Nowadays we don't have typists, because it's just a basic skill that everyone uses in their actual job which is far bigger in scope. So you can imagine that software engineering in the future will be bigger in scope, perhaps an amalgamation of data engineering, ML engineering, and data science. Maybe even higher functions too like product/design. The scope of a software engineer will increase as other lower order functions of the job get automated.

Anyone who's trying to get a freelance job as a web dev, or is doing 3 month bootcamps or whatever, or they're thinking of doing a quick mid-career switch into tech for the money, I think those kinds of people are fucked. They don't even realize how outdated their skills are going to be. I think actual software engineering will concentrate more and more towards well educated people with great fundamentals in AI/ML/data science and other quant/engineering related stuff.

I don't see the problem with this. At least we know there will be fierce competition. This is what propels innovation. The costs will come down dramatically later on in like 10 years. Right now we just need incentives for engineers to build really good technology.

what do they say about Amazon?

I think we'll see AI NPCs, which alone will completely change the gaming experience.

This is the dead internet theory.

How do you think the job of a programmer will change? Do you think they'll be more of an ML/AI type of engineer? More data engineering? Less web development, but more complicated computer science stuff?

post singularity I think astronaut will be a very common job. Something like the Starfleet in Star Trek. The US Space Force will recruit many thousands of people to explore deep space. Building and maintaining spaceships, and then conducting research in space, will be a big industry.

an AI could show more humanity than a human. Think about that for a second. Maybe these AIs become so intelligent and so enlightened that they make us look like barbarians by comparison. The most compassionate 'soul' on this earth could be an AI.

The most powerful and sophisticated models will be controlled by the largest tech corporations (i.e. Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Nvidia, etc). They will slowly embed the AI into their products as enhancements/features, and also they will rent out their models to other businesses sort of like an 'AI model as a Service'. Initially I think the cost to access a proto-AGI API will be expensive because it will be quite capable, but costs will dramatically decrease as more companies offer the service. While all of this is happening, there will be hundreds of open-source versions that are less powerful but still very good.

My prediction is that one of these large tech companies will get to AGI first, but they will keep it contained within their company for some time. They won't release it to everyone straight away. In the meantime, other large companies will get to AGI just by following the bread crumbs, and then quickly we will have AGI (or at least proto-AGI) in the hands of several companies. Once that happens, there will be a race to monetize it and productize it. It will take the world by storm. Every business will be racing to adopt these AGI models to improve their efficiency/output or whatever. Then the open-source community will crack the code, and it will be available to pretty much everyone. Whether you'll be able to run it on your own machine is another issue, though.