Yeah that was a typo :) But thankfully these probabilities are not estimated we came up with, they're the consensus of our traders, who are much smarter.

Hey u/Eascen, yeah you're totally right, this is data from speculation - I thought it was beautiful but of course that's subjective. I'm always fascinated by this stuff because I think it's interesting that non-experts can collectively produce more accurate predictions than any one individual, and just how that pattern seems to hold across a wide range of fields. Has some philosophical implications :)

No worries - thanks for pointing out the error! Made some changes before posting and I think the pattern from the first two quotes got into my head :/

I added an edit to my OP correcting the mistake.

Oh yeah, I apologize for that typo.

Haha I'm kind of biased here because I'm a software engineer at Kalshi :) Don't want to plug haha, but if you have any questions about it just LMK!

Ah, that makes sense.

Haha :) Depending on where you live, you might be saved by a partial injunction (just affecting a few states). Hopefully you're not in Nebraska? :)

Oh that's really interesting - do you know what other mechanisms are at the administration's disposal?

Good morning everyone. The visualization above shows market odds from Kalshi (a prediction market) on possible outcomes for the ongoing supreme court case Biden v. Nebraska. SCOTUS is currently deciding whether or not to permit Biden’s student debt relief, which has been contested by several states.

The probabilities shown reflect the odds at which market participants are currently willing to enter a trade. For example, if the visualization shows that a particular outcome has 80%, it means that there are some traders willing to take 1:5 odds ($0.20 reward per $0.80 invested) that outcome will happen, and that there are are other traders willing to take 5:1 odds that the outcome will not happen (there’s no “house” in these prediction markets - they function like an exchange where participants match with each other). As these markets are public, the theory of the “wisdom of the crowds” is that more accurate predictors will be more confident and thus move the price towards the true probability.

I’d love to hear what you all think, and your feedback on the illustration. Also, I wanted to give enormous credit to my friend Osub - he’s the designer who made this.–Disclaimer: I am a prediction markets enthusiast and an engineer who works at Kalshi on these forecasts. If you have any technical questions about how these figures were computed, please feel free to ask.

Data

Kalshi markets' price history, accessible through their api

Washington Post

Tools

Figma, copy.ai

Edit: Apologies for the typo, Prelogar is not a supreme court justice - she is the Solicitor General.

Collegeboard says it's expected by June 2023.

Oh interesting, I didn't know that.

Yeah - I was pretty surprised that there could be this much certainty in any court ruling this controversial, but it seems that the stance of each supreme court justice is well understood.

This is really cool! It's interesting that you can attribute those spikes to specific events.