I think is this probably the closest to the right take. I've been eyeing Unity for a while now - the technology is good and is a staple in the industry, but they don't seem to be able to monetize it. I think the most likely bullish case is that they are purchased/merged at some point in time at a premium.

What you're describing would just be a normal bank run

Sorry, I messed up with the previous response. You can infact lose a lot selling puts, especially if you arn't careful with leverage/don't cover with cash. If you believe in the business and arn't too aggressive with the strike price you'll probably be okay.

No, fuck SPACs. If you really believe in the business I would sell puts at a (really) discounted price and pick up the shares when you get assigned.

Theoretically, yes. We arn't close to that point though.

Calls on Spidaman

Baseline is 75 bp - and from what I've seen, as are most analyst expectations. I'm assuming that some small % of the market thinks that 50/100 bp is how it'll turn out. An actual announcement of 75bp should result in a small bump in the market, while a 100bp should result in a large downturn.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

It's not either/or, it's definately both - though believing probably holds greater sway in the short term.