SLG baby!

Hope you cleaned up this afternoon!

You’re still yet to make a single coherent point. Bragging about how much time you spend on Reddit and WSB is so myopic that it’s sad.

“Blackstone Inc.’s Jonathan Gray expects the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5.25% to 5.5% and will then hold there an extended period of time, despite emerging signs of slowing inflation.”

…“While the firm expects an inverted yield curve and slowing economic activity this year, the world is in a ‘much better spot’ than during the 2008 financial crisis, Gray told a Hong Kong audience at a Webinar held by the Hong Kong Academy of Finance on Thursday. ‘It feels to me more like what we experienced in the early-2000 period where we had technology stocks that had run up too much, we had a Fed-induced slowdown that ended up being shallow and we then came out of it.’”

From Bloomberg, 2-16-2023.

Again, fucking read dude. You’re the worst kind of stupid. There is no winning with someone who is both arrogant and dumb. I sincerely hope that when the world inevitably presents you with incontrovertible evidence of your own idiocy that you possess the self awareness to internalize it and be humbled.

It was the most oversold CREIT of the post-SVB crisis. It was completely relentless on the way down with multiple days of double digit % losses. The dividend is going to get hammered in April but, the momentum is real after opening again strong this morning. Def a ride the momentum and gtfo trade in my opinion. Great to see the algo’s supporting the trade, if people pile in, these shorts will get squeezed hard.

Popped 📈 4.20% as of 8:51am CST, suck it to the naysayers

There is nowhere in the market that is telling you sovereign debt yields will rise to 9-10%. That’s so absurd it borders on conspiracy. Your apocalyptic and way-too-self-assured style of speaking confirms that you’re listening to quacks. Best of luck waiting for the world to end. I’m sure it will be immensely profitable for your counterparties.

They’re def cutting the div in April. Just gotta hope the stock price goes enough to justify the play!

Lol, this is the way, happy hunting to us all

My business profits when classes of commercial real estate drop in price. If that were the case, I’d happily believe it. But, you’re indefensibly wrong about this. And you’re forecasting 9-10% sovereign debt in developed markets!? I’m not even going to begin to tell you how impossibly stupid that is. Suffice to say it wouldn’t be “risk-free” as nearly every country would default on its debt. I’m done responding to you because you are spouting nonsense that could very easily be invalidated by 5 minutes of reading.

It’s the NY real estate market, I’d say it’s probably a requisite to be a prick. The nice guys are analysts working 120 hours a week commuting from Brooklyn.

Oh he’s 100% right about being one of the all-time great short sellers. I just don’t think he needs to tell us that he’s the “greatest of all time” (literally his words) 50x in the span of an interview.

I stated very clearly that I agree with the shorts theses on office REITs that are overexposed to poorly performing markets. The stock isn’t rebounding for any fundamentally driven reasons, it was reading oversold for a week and the momentum is driven by demand for stock as the shorts (who composed nearly 70% of the float) close out their positions. It comes off as extremely uninformed (whether or not you intended to) to put “commercial REITs” in one bucket as commercial real estate consists of nearly a dozen property types, each of which has its own set of economics. I have worked in commercial property valuation for over a decade so, I feel qualified to form an opinion (which again, you completely misread).

He’s a massive prick. Check out short seller Mark Cohodes’ recent interview on Blockworks Macro. One of the biggest egos I have ever seen in finance. And that’s such a high bar.

Totally agree with this strategy, we’ve seen plenty of examples of shorts piling back-in this year after a rally and I don’t think this will be an exception. But $25 call with 4/7 expiry date is where I’m hanging out.