A similar discussion emerged after Mexico has been hit by an earthquake three times on the same date. It is nicely discussed in this podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001cq31
In essence, if you only wonder how likely an event was after it happened, it is incorrect to look at the probability of this happening to a specific person at a specific time and place. It could have happened to another person, at a different time and at a different place and you would still have read about it and wondered about how unlikely this event seems.
quants_pants t1_itqkh23 wrote
Reply to How does one figure out what probability is most relevant when deciding how probable something is? by eth_trader_12
A similar discussion emerged after Mexico has been hit by an earthquake three times on the same date. It is nicely discussed in this podcast: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001cq31 In essence, if you only wonder how likely an event was after it happened, it is incorrect to look at the probability of this happening to a specific person at a specific time and place. It could have happened to another person, at a different time and at a different place and you would still have read about it and wondered about how unlikely this event seems.