shillyshally

shillyshally t1_j1kmvs4 wrote

This is a question no one can answer. It starts with a big if - whether there is a bounce - which is speculation at this point and then proceeds to ask a specific question about the nature of the unproven, speculative event.

Think what you want. Your speculation holds as much weight as any other or face up to the Fact there are unknowables at the heart of our existence.

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shillyshally t1_j0xrmx9 wrote

I worked in one of the first industries to be devastated by computers and I embraced it at the time as more efficient which it was. However, those well paid union jobs were gone, gone, gone and nothing came along to replace them. This time around, the change will be more wide spread and deeper and we need to think about what that portends.

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shillyshally t1_iw9qz36 wrote

Oh for godsake, you've gone above and beyond already! Way above and beyond. You can't manage other people's lives. The planet overflows with danger and unpleasantness and its denizens need to get a grip and learn how to handle the negative or they can never hope to grow up and fully Become.

The individual taking you to task was a bit of a Karen.

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shillyshally t1_iuwdet8 wrote

I don't math. I used $1 becasue I figured that is what the average person would pay. I'm average and I pay $3 a month to Amazon to keep videos of all the critters visiting my yard at night.

The other thing that could happen is all the ex-Twitter employees found - with some billionaire backing them - a new Twitter. Peeper is probably a no go as far as names go as is Twatter (Except maybe in Australia). Maybe Cheeper since we are all poor these days. Or Quacker for the MAGA anti-vax folks.

As part of a rebranding, Musk could rename Twitter to Blather or Blither or BlitherBlather.

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shillyshally t1_iuvhcp5 wrote

$8 a month is chicken feed to blue check people. However, Twitter ad revenue is generated by eyes on Twitter content so blue checks may bristle at being charged for supplying the content that brings attention to the ads. Stephen King has already said as much.

"Last year, Twitter’s interest expense was about $50 million. With the new debt taken on in the deal, that will now balloon to about $1 billion a year. Yet the company’s operations last year generated about $630 million in cash flow to meet its financial obligations."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/30/technology/elon-musk-twitter-debt.html

The most quoted number of users is around 350M. If each of those users paid $1 a month, that would generate $42B in revenue. But! 10% of the users generate mostly all the content so it would be more likely that 35M users would pay $1 a month and that would only generate $420M. So far, Twitter has lost money except for, I think, two quarters so even with the added user revenue Twitter could not make enough to pay the interest on his loans.

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shillyshally t1_iu3jqq5 wrote

From Barron's - "Because of deals signed in just the past year, companies like BP, Shell, Exxon, and Chevron are building enough offshore wind farms to supply millions of homes on the East Coast with electricity and are preparing to produce hundreds of millions of gallons of fuel made from plants, garbage, and kitchen grease. They’re increasingly confident that they can get greener without sacrificing profits.

A gusher of cash this year makes that an easier task. Oil companies are taking advantage of sky-high commodity prices to pay down debt, fund capex and shareholder returns, and invest in low-carbon businesses of the future. Worldwide, total investments in renewable energy is on track to exceed oil and gas investments for the first year ever this year."

So, some of the oil companies see the writing on the wall. OTOH, Shell is doing a buy back rather than lowering prices.

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