ziptofaf

ziptofaf t1_iufw6gk wrote

>also the war is pretty much a stalemate right now, ukraine isn’t really “kicking ass” they’ve just got 30+ billion in artillery and overhead support which slowly halts Russia’s advances

Technically speaking - as long as Russia is not winning it means it's losing. If your offensive war comes to a halt and 950 soldiers today just turned into minced meat for NOTHING then you can't keep it up forever. You need territorial gains because you lose long term.

On the other hand if Ukraine is not losing - it's winning. They can send their new recruits for training all over Europe, they receive additional equipment over time and they are slowly but steadily bleeding Russia dry. Especially since under all the sanctions Russia finds it difficult to replace their equipment. They can throw more untrained conscripts (and they CAN'T afford to train them properly if there's a risk of Ukraine being able to break the stalemate, they need to be using them on a daily basis) into meatgrinder. But this is a very costly tactic if it doesn't lead to any major victories.

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ziptofaf t1_iufver3 wrote

I mean, this is pretty much why Russia even agreed in the first place (it was definitely NOT their newlyfound humanity, Russians are free of such burdens). UK was in actual talks to send their fleet to protect these ships and most likely under the table told Russia that their compliance is not necessary. USA already told Russia that if they see a nuke they will perform a magic trick that makes Black Sea fleet disappear which also implies using navy.

So now that Russia is officially withdrawing from this deal they are effectively testing West. We have the means to enforce it, now can we actually act on it? If NATO vessels actually arrive in the region you can bet that Russia will instantly go "oh, deal is back on, we have got what we wanted from our negotiations". Since let's be fair - British fishing boats have tied with entire might of the Russian Baltic fleet before and it's safe to assume Russia has not improved much since.

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