Submitted by filosoful t3_11wl83z in Futurology
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd0bch8 wrote
Another one of those:
>The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said [some doomsday crap]
He's not a climate scientist, he's politician and diplomat. All this guy does for the last 5 years is giving out dramatic headlines and final warnings to the press.
- We're on a 'highway to climate hell,' UN chief Guterres says (Nov 7, 2022)
- World headed for climate catastrophe without urgent action: UN Secretary-General (Oct 27, 2022)
- UN chief says the world is in ‘life-or-death struggle’ for survival (Oct 3, 2022)
- Guterres at Stockholm+50: “End the suicidal war against nature” (Jun 2, 2022)
- Climate crisis is a code red for humanity: UN chief (Oct 27, 2021)
- ‘Climate change is battle of my life’ and we’re losing, warns UN chief Antonio Guterres (Dec 11, 2020)
- UN secretary general urges all countries to declare climate emergencies (Dec 12, 2020)
- António Guterres: Climate Change Is Biggest Threat to Global Economy (Jan 25, 2019)
- U.N. Secretary-General issues a grave warning about climate apocalypse (Dec 2, 2019)
- UN chief warns of ‘point of no return’ on climate change (Dec 1, 2019)
- Climate change: Failure to tackle warming 'suicidal' (Dec 13, 2018)
No wonder many people are afraid of having kids or even too depressed to live today. Want to relax? Emergency! Catastrophe! Point of no return! Want to live? Suicidal! Grave warning! Want to have hope? "We are losing!".
Doomers' crap
GimmickNG t1_jd0y80v wrote
When people are drowning because of sea levels rising, are you still going to claim it's "doomer crap" because you don't see any difference in your life?
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd2hsyf wrote
As per IPCC we are on track to 2.5-2.7C warming by 2100.
Estimated sea rise for 2.5C is 58 cm.
People will not "be drowning" because of sea rise.
I believe in science. I don't believe in doomers crap.
[deleted] t1_jd3iqft wrote
[removed]
cptn__ t1_jd11gis wrote
All he's doing is bring more attention to the results of IPCC's reports? This isn't his personal opinion, but the consensus of a large group of scientist who specialize in this field, and were tasked with making reports to summarize how/why climate change is going to affect humanity and what we can do to minimize it.
What would be the point of UN creating this panel if the results were to be ignored and never brought up by any politicians?
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd2h9zc wrote
No, these headlines are not consensus of large group of scientists. He interprets IPCC reports whatever he sees fit for headlines and dramatizes science to the point of perversion.
Dramatic and factually false headlines have clear psychological side effects on people with unknown long term consequences. I regularly see people on this sub citing climate as *main* reason they do not have kids or do not plan for future.
Thanks to headlines like this. Thanks to people like him. And to people like you who see nothing special in his lies, because "the cause is just".
cptn__ t1_jd2tkxi wrote
Dramatizes? Because he uses terms such as "suicidal", when it's a perfect analogy for how we are self harming with our excessive pollution.
It sounds more like you're upset you can't stay ignorant anymore and have been forced to stare the inconvenient truth in the face. It should absolutely shock and affect peoples behavior, because it's not some fake propaganda or a Mayan' doomsday prediction, it's an inevitable fact, and the best solution we have right now is to try our best to work together to mitigate its effects.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd35yq3 wrote
I never was ignorant and listened to scientist opinion on the matter since I first got a wind of it 20 years now.
You making accusations and assumptions is just you making yourself an excuse to continue supporting people making hysterical doomer false comments and hurting other people's lives and futures with those comments. Lives that should not have been otherwise hurt by any real climate danger.
m-s-c-s t1_jd0r3og wrote
Are you a climate scientist?
edit: I'm asking because, ya know, he got his reports from climate scientists. Just wondering if you have any data other than "this guy seems really worried about the climate."
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd2hyfx wrote
I am not making any independent statements. I completely and fully rely on opinion of experts in the field (Antonio is not an expert in the field). If I rely on experts' opinion I don't need to be a climate scientist to make correct statements.
Reports he gets from scientists are fine. Opinions he spits out in doomsday manner that are *nowhere to find* in those reports are full of shit.
m-s-c-s t1_jd3fzer wrote
> Reports he gets from scientists are fine. Opinions he spits out in doomsday manner that are nowhere to find in those reports are full of shit.
Literally your second link has a link to the climate report he’s citing along with the names of the numerous contributors to the report. Ditto for the 4th link that has links to further reports.
The rest are written by third party news sources (whom he has no control over re: data transparency) or a press release linking to one.
Go read the reports and get back to me.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd3th56 wrote
>your second link has a link to the climate report he’s citing
That report is about projected warming of to ~2.8C by 2100, just like many other similar reports that put it into 2.5-2.8 range. And just like others it discusses possiblities and scenarios of getting in below 1.5 and 2C. Which are very illusional and those unreachable in rational terms scenarios Antonio uses to scream loud titles and get anxious clicks from modern "final day witnesses", despite there is nothing about "catastrophe", "bUrNing" or similar doomers' vocabulary in the report.
>Go read the reports and get back to me.
Why? You can't read yourself?
m-s-c-s t1_jd40u6k wrote
> That report is about projected warming of to ~2.8C by 2100, just like many other similar reports that put it into 2.5-2.8 range. And just like others it discusses possiblities and scenarios of getting in below 1.5 and 2C. Which are very illusional and those unreachable in rational terms scenarios
Says you, decidedly NOT a climate scientists. On the other hand, the climate scientists in that report seem to think they're necessary goals.
> Antonio uses to scream loud titles and get anxious clicks from modern "final day witnesses", despite there is nothing about "catastrophe", "bUrNing" or similar doomers' vocabulary in the report.
The title of the report is literally "The Closing Window Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies"
It discusses extensively the risk and impact of failure to address climate change.
> Why? You can't read yourself?
I can, and did. Did you? If so, you missed this in the third paragraph of the introduction:
"Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published two reports as part of its Sixth Assessment cycle, on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC 2022a) and Mitigation of Climate Change (IPCC 2022b). The reports record the vast impacts of climate change that we are already experiencing, and how the climate risks of the future are of a much greater order of magnitude. Once again, these reports document that the scale and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, finding that projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming. This year, as has repeatedly been the case in recent years, many countries have experienced an unprecedented number of climate events, with extreme weather leading to flooding, drought and wildfires, and causing food shortages, health problems, and major damage to ecosystems and human habitats, leading to internal displacement and migration around the world."
There's that doomer language you claimed wasn't in it. That's why I asked you to read it.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd4e0og wrote
Sice you mentioned really good example of how it should be done, I'm done discussing Antonios bullshit .
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IPCC 2022a).
This one is actually a great scientific report. I used technical summary since whole report is too large.
Not too hard to understand. For those who don't have time to read there is an awesome list of Representative Key Risk on page 113, as well is great succinct recap on them:
>For most RKRs, potentially global and systemically pervasive risks become severe in the case of high levels of warming, combined with high exposure/vulnerability, low adaptation or both
And looks like it says exactly what I highlighted: in vulnerable regions that fail to adapt.
Who would have thought?.. /s
Page 116 is actually brilliant sum up of risks and *conditions* under which under which risks could become severe. Note how real science does not talk "doom, inevitable doom and death, grave, grave, point of no return"? This is the whole point of my rant.
I gotta thank you now that I have scientific report to point it is going to be easier to drive my point that doomers are just that, doomers. There is no inevitability, it is not global, it is not indiscriminate, it is not unconditional and here is a scientific report that point that out: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf
m-s-c-s t1_jd5emdp wrote
Man, I'm not sure why you're thanking me. These are your sources. Paper written in 2022, and has an excellent summary.
That said, it is a wonderful example that António Guterres is correctly echoing the sentiment of the reports.
Here's some of the detail you missed:
From Page 116:
> Latin America: "5.8 million people pushed to extreme poverty by 2030 (7; 11)"
That's 7 years from now, but who's counting?
> Worldwide: "Global GDP losses of 10–23% by 2100 due to temperature impacts alone (3; 12; 13)"
Note that they didn't say "lack of growth," they said "losses."
Or look at the map on page 81, where it shows the number of people who will be displaced by more severe costal flooding. Tens of millions of people in India by 2040.
Also take a look at page 80, where substantial portions of the world will be at risk of death from heat and humidity. It's literally a map of where it will be effectively uninhabitable because there will not be a single day in the year where it's safe to go outside. It will literally be too hot to live there.
Another problem would be the wildfires,
> "At a global warming of 2°C with associated changes in precipitation global land area burned by wildfire is projected to increase by 35% (medium confidence)." Page 55.
or as you put it: "bUrNing". Actually, you also claimed they didn't use the word "catastrophe", but a conjugation of it shows up 3 times in your source.
> Page 45: "Climate-induced extinctions, including mass extinctions, are common in the palaeo record, underlining the potential of climate change to have catastrophic impacts on species and ecosystems (high confidence)."
> Page 50: "Between 1970 and 2019, drought-related disaster events worldwide caused billions of dollars in economic damages (medium confidence). Drylands are particularly exposed to climate change related droughts (high confidence). Recent heavy rainfall events that have led to catastrophic flooding were made more likely by anthropogenic climate change (high confidence). Observed mortality and losses due to floods and droughts are much greater in regions with high vulnerability and vulnerable populations such as the poor, women, children, Indigenous Peoples and the elderly due to historical, political and socioeconomic inequities (high confidence)."
Note that they used the past tense there, as in catastrophic impact has already occurred.
> Page 87: "Restoration of ecosystems in catchments can also support water supplies during periods of variable rainfall and maintain water quality and, combined with inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities, provide disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (high confidence). Restoring natural vegetation cover and wildfire regimes can reduce risks to people from catastrophic fires."
Note here that they use both the things you complained about, catastrophe and burning.
Like look man, I can't help but think you still aren't reading these since they directly contradict your thesis.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jd945q9 wrote
"Wildfires are predicted to be larger, and wildfires happen in the world, so 'the world is burning' is a correct phrase, and if you don't see how this makes sense, then you're silly climate denier!!!" - gist of your comment
I also noted how you managed to find and highlight doom words even in paragraphs dedicated to positive things, like wildlife restorations, this really tells a whole story about doomers, they will find doom-words anywhere and conjure up a world of them while ignoring everything else.
What you and Antonio do has beed described in a form of comic long time ago: https://d.justpo.st/media/images/2013/08/0c729810e4e921d67bf898e0069f88b8.jpg
m-s-c-s t1_jdbgai8 wrote
Cool. Can you give me one of those positive paragraphs to talk about? I'm having trouble identifying one.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jdcrh3g wrote
Really? My dude, it was the last one you quoted, come on. It is talking about supporting water supplies with the restoration of ecosystems, basically recommending a path for vulnerable areas to reduce or maybe even remove a risk to their water supply.
>...combined with inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities, provide disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (high confidence)
What is the best hint that your mind skips over good stuff and over-focuses on the bad than this? It's not healthy for you or anyone.
m-s-c-s t1_jdcsfea wrote
Uh… those are all suggestions about what we need to do more of. They’re not saying “this is fine because we’re doing these things.” They’re saying “this will be fine if we take action like Antonio has been begging you to do for years.”
> TS.D.4.5 Ecosystem-based adaptation measures can reduce climatic risks to people, including from flood, drought, fire and overheating (high confidence). Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches are increasingly being used as part of strategies to manage flood risk, at the coast in the face of rising sea levels and inland in the context of more extreme rainfall events (high confidence). Flood-risk measures that work with nature by allowing flooding within coastal and wetland ecosystems and support sediment accretion can reduce costs and bring substantial co-benefits to ecosystems, liveability and livelihoods (high confidence). In urban areas, trees and natural areas can lower temperatures by providing shade and cooling from evapotranspiration (high confidence). Restoration of ecosystems in catchments can also support water supplies during periods of variable rainfall and maintain water quality and, combined with inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities, provide disaster risk reduction and sustainable development (high confidence). Restoring natural vegetation cover and wildfire regimes can reduce risks to people from catastrophic fires. Restoration of wetlands could support livelihoods and help sequester carbon (medium confidence), provided they are allowed accommodation space. Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches can be cost effective and provide a wide range of additional co-benefits in terms of ecosystem services and biodiversity protection and enhancement. (Figure TS.9 URBAN, Figure TS.11a) {2.6.3, 2.6.5, 2.6.7, Table 2.7, 3.6.2, 3.6.3, 3.6.5, Box 4.6, Box 4.7, 12.5.1, 12.5.3, 12.5.5, 13.2.2, 13.3.2, 13.6.2, Box 14.7, 15.5.4, Figure 15.7, CCP2, CCP5.4.2, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR}
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jdcw130 wrote
There are signs of looming local catastrophes, that can be mitigated if we do enough. We should be talking about saving those people, that would be a positive twist. A saving mission, what can be more noble and relatable to westerners?
Instead Antonio uses fear. And I agree with one grandma that recently said on TV in relation to republicans banning books: "Fear is not future. Fear is control"
And Antonio using fear is not begging, Antonio is manipulating for control.
m-s-c-s t1_jde06t7 wrote
They tried the saving mission, and most countries ignored the recommendations at any meaningful scale. You want a positive outcome? Stop making excuses about the source of the messaging and start doing what the scientists recommend instead of claiming we’re already on a positive trajectory.
Edit: it bugged me so I had to address it. 10-20% of global GDP and millions of people is no longer “local.” Moreover, the catastrophes are not “looming,” they’re already happening as articulated by the scientists in your own source.
YawnTractor_1756 t1_jde1k8q wrote
>They tried the saving mission
This BS probably works for you with younger dudes, but I've been in thinking capacity since the time it was called 'global warming', and it has always been about "everybody dies unless we stop fossil in ___ years".
>start doing what the scientists recommend
As far as I'm concerned we're already doing it. And we're already on positive trajectory as compared to those RCP scenarios that were extensively used in 90s and 2000s as mainstream scenarios.
m-s-c-s t1_jdfa2wr wrote
> This BS probably works for you with younger dudes, but I've been in thinking capacity since the time it was called 'global warming', and it has always been about "everybody dies unless we stop fossil in ___ years".
Global warming and climate change refer to different things.
By the way, not everybody dies, just far more people than need to. They literally catalogue how many they anticipate in the source you provided.
> TS.C.6.3 Increased heat-related mortality and morbidity are projected globally (very high confidence). Globally, temperature- related mortality is projected to increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation (very high confidence). Tens of thousands of additional deaths are projected under moderate and high global warming scenarios, particularly in north, west and central Africa, with up to year-round exceedance of deadly heat thresholds by 2100 (RCP8.5) (high agreement, robust evidence). In Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, urban heat-related excess deaths are projected to increase by about 300 yr-1 (low emission pathway) to 600 yr-1 (high emission pathway) during 2031–2080 relative to 142yr-1 during 1971–2020 (high confidence). In Europe the number of people at high risk of mortality will triple at 3°C compared to 1.5°C warming, in particular in central and southern Europe and urban areas (high confidence). {6.2.2, 7.3.1, 8.4.5, 9.10.2, Figure 9.32, Figure 9.35, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, 11.3.6, Table 11.14, 12.3.4, 12.3.8, Figure 12.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.23, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, 16.5.2}
See what I mean?
> As far as I'm concerned we're already doing it. And we're already on positive trajectory as compared to those RCP scenarios that were extensively used in 90s and 2000s as mainstream scenarios.
Here's the CO^2 trendline. Where's the dip we'd see if we were doing this action?
Oh, and the 90s and 2000s mainstream scenarios? Here are some examples:
> Schneider’s forecast is considerably more ominous.
> “Six of the warmest years in the last 100 occurred in the ‘80s,” he said recently at a meeting of chemists in Miami. “And I’ll give you odds that the ‘90s will be warmer than the ‘80s.”
When that was published in 1989, we were at 0.27C increase. When the Kyoto Protocol was signed 8 years later in 1997, it was 0.33C.
> "I am a fundamentally optimistic person, but it is getting more and more difficult, because I see the message of science has not fundamentally changed from when I started working in this field, which was 20 years ago," said Thomas Stocker, a professor of climate and environmental physics at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
> Based on two assumptions — that it is not economically feasible for nations to make emissions reductions of more than about 5 percent per year and that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have a moderate warming effect — he calculates a 2.7 degree Fahrenheit (1.5 degree Celsius) cap on warming, for which island nations vulnerable to rising sea levels have pushed, is already unrealistic. (That cap is often compared to a speed limit for warming; while some consequences — heat waves, species loss and so on — are expected to occur at lesser levels of warming, the repercussions are expected to become more dire as warming increases.)
> Reductions would need to begin by 2027 for the more widely accepted 3.6-degree F (2 degrees C) cap to be achievable, and a 4.5 degree F (2.5 degree C) cap becomes unrealistic after 2040, he calculates.
We were at 0.65C then.
Now, a year after the industrial world shut down to the point that rivers ran clear, it's 0.89C.
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